Well, your first post did in the sense that it locked in everyone except me/Miner/blab as town. Everything after that is kind of like...your position is "lynch through those three is a win"? If you were actually ruling one of those out or seriously deprecating them as a possible lynch it'd be a different story, but as-is your motives are always going to be congruent with scum producing a world where lynching them isn't necessary.

Combined with how hard you've been fighting your own lynch, it feels like you're trying to guarantee a situation where you specifically don't die and the obvious motivation for this is that you're scum and your buddy is in a bad spot. By contrast, if I were defending how MY play is town mindset it'd be in the sense that I'm trying to nail down a plan that works if I die and I'm not trying to push my agenda on the thread at large.

Of course, in a similar way MY motives are always congruent with "scum who think their buddy can go the distance" i.e. blab. I guess the question I'd raise to this conceit is: Going back a few days when I was in a better position, would I be banking on blab to carry the scumteam to a win?

(Another quick point I'll make is that I tend to have an inverted view of towncred: As TOWN I spend it like a resource to get things done that I think are important, like expressing unpopular reads, producing counterwagons to probable scum, and so forth, while as SCUM I hoard it to try and maximize my towniness. From what I understand, most people behave the opposite way)

Sleep well!

---------- Post automerged at 09:41 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:59 PM ----------

(EBWOP: Oh also, I'd argue I've at a minimum reevaluated Blab based on play today and that asking me to reevaluate you is mildly incongruous since, like, I'd have to put you as townier and I'm not suuuuuper willing to do that on your say-so :V)

 

Kind of don't think cobalt tries to sneak a wolf buddy in here and then the wolves go and kill kai? Would kind of defeat the purpose I feel.

 

Hmm. I recall thinking this but forgetting it before posting about it. However, the bit I remembered was the one where he yelled about "HAVE FUN LOSING TO PIE/KAI/STANARI" only as he was going down.

What do you make of the lack of blab at that point, if anything?

 

Which literally just leaves me with miner/Reg/dC anyway and Reg/Miner is never a thing so miner/dC or Reg/dC and considering what I just read from while I was sleeping I don't think that's a thing either.

 

Pie, I might not be able to be up by then; here's some food for thought in the meantime.

Vaimes/@Pienyan - The below is a short post and pretty importantly where I'm at. Bounce with me.

Okay, finished reading through a large portion of what I wanted to go over this game. I'm pretty much in a situation where I think we are always dealing with a team of 5 very likely without daytalk and the exact scum team is 1 of [Fable/DC] and 1 of [Miner/Blab] in that I've done enough rereading to have zero concerns ever with Vaimes/Pie/Stanari and I don't think Fable/DC or Miner/Blab are ever worlds. I'd not lynch Fable outside of a 3 way situation and even then I'd not say "Always lynch him if he's alive in 3 way" because I'd almost say he's mostly earned this one as mafia but wouldn't also let him coast there.

That leaves 4 scum teams as possibilities though 1) Miner/DC, 2) Miner/Fable, 3) Blab/DC and 4) Blab/Fable. The Fable ones are pretty tin-foil but I've not found a reason to rule them out other than "I town read Fable".

Inside that the specific scum team that makes the most sense is DC/Blab, Blabs strong town read on DC and real delay in actually getting around to elaborating on this read as well as admission that he's not really read DC's posts lately feels like trying to sneak a partner in the town reads to end-game. I also think DC's read on Blab here and the way he's handling the situation makes sense with the both of them sort of just floating around hoping the lynches go Miner->Me or Me->Miner for them to win. Neither of them look to be assessing this day phase from a 'lets solve this game' type perspective and both of them providing kill orders that involve themselves continues to be something I find really scummy but makes sense with them just banking on the mslynches being provided to them in us two.

So right now, I'd probably recommend a DC->Blab (Or Blab->DC) lynch order. I'd like a little more rereading to see if I can narrow those 4 possible worlds down to less than that but that's pretty much a short summary of where I'm at. Can you strongly rule out of those 4 worlds for me (with solid logic, please) because doing so actually is a huge help.

 

Nothing? I think he was just angry?

Like to be fair "HAVE FUN LOSING TO PIE/KAI/STANARI OR PIE/KAI BLAB IF THAT FIRST TEAM IS WRONG" doesn't really have the same impact.

 

There's a few flaws in this logic in that his "Scum are" comment actually did mostly match his prior thoughts, that means it's not something he could really amend if he'd had a partner in there to begin with. And if there's no daytalk which I think is likely (From what I reread Zenzao wasn't aware that Cobalt was banned which he probably does if mafia have daytalk) then he'd not have known for a fact they were planning on shooting Kai.

 

Right but daychat or not they made that kill after cobalt made those posts so while cobalt couldn't have known they would kill Kai they did know cobalt made those posts with those teams.

---------- Post automerged at 08:35 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:33 AM ----------

It's not even like it could have been already decided beforehand and that wasn't enough to change it if you're thinking no daychat.

 

Okay so I specifically hate this because I also townread Fable and this line of argument therefore causes a loss FMPOV. For the sake of argument, can you specify why we should lynch Fable after my flip? Like, specifically?

Oh also I'd like to add that I have lots of successful scum endgames (Game of Thrones, FTL, Insomniac) where my endgame play pattern boiled down to "legitimately gamesolve as though I know I'm town". I am actually gonna come out and say that gamesolving in and of itself is not towny in endgame, because the limiting factor on scum doing it is not that THEY are scum but that they have lots of buddies that leave holes in their solving. Once you think you're the only scum who can survive the game, it's shockingly easy to just go completely townside. I have experience with this, and this is what I think Reg has been doing.

 

This post confuses me greatly.

And also makes me think miner is more likely to be a wolf.

 

Fable - Highly dout that post influenced scums night kill at all. I don't think the logic of "He listed a partner there" "He didn't list a partner there" "Oh there's less people alive there, that means one of the remaining is his partner" are things.
dichotomousCreator - I think there's never a scum team that involves Vaimes/Stanari/Pie, I don't think Miner/Blab are ever things. I don't think DC/You are ever things, that leaves two pretty clear divisions; I think there's always one between you and Fable, yes. I'm leaning pretty heavily towards it being you, yes. I'm not arguing "Lets lynch DC->Fable" at all, I'm not even sure I'd lynch you over Blab, I'm still part way through my analysis of the game. I'm just giving Vaimes/Pie a starting of where I'm at to bounce with.

 

Whoa he isn't saying lynch me he's saying don't let me coast which is understandable. It was what I was trying to tell stanari earlier.

 

Like you've misconstrued where I'm at pretty clearly?

Couldn't have made it clearer inside my post that I'd not really recommend a Fable lynch outside of a 3 way lylo if he drops off. And it's pretty clear I'm nowhere near decided on the exact scum team, I'm just sharing with them where I'm at.

 

Okay, but you specified four teams. Two of them have me on them, and two of them have Fable on them. I can accept that me becoming confirmed town would cause you to reevaluate rather than falling back on your two Fable worlds, but you did specifically say there was 1 scum [Fable/DC]? And from your history this game I don't think you'd leave your scumteams with such a low-level invalidating problem.

So I guess what I'm asking is, what scumteams become possible with confirmation that I'm town that don't have Fable in them?

 

Actually if we're thinking no daychat I could see that post being "if you wanna bus I'm fine with that but I think there are better choices."

 

(EBWOP: Even if you're not saying "SCUM IS DEFINITELY THESE FOUR TEAMS", it's like, the starting point for analyzing your positions, for me, is "if I'm not scum then Fable must be and I don't think that's right")

 

dC out of curiosity did you ever read that wolf game I linked you?

---------- Post automerged at 10:48 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:24 AM ----------

Man the grossest tinfoil just popped into my head.

Cobalt knowing he already fucked up with his first claim, claims tracker with the intention of getting lynched in an attempt to get Pein cleared.

That's never a thing right? That can backfire way too easily.

 

I have a few minutes right now, but I have to pull triple Tutor duty today because a couple colleagues got food poisoning on Mallorca this last weekend (that's at least what they wrote me :/)
Fable:
look at the pienyan/Cobalt/Waco interaction at the very beginning of the game where Waco claims pienyans read of Cobalt is a scum looking for a mislynch. Screams pienyan/Waco/Cobalt is town/scum/scum imo.
Regfan:
I have more reasons to townread Fable, so miner/dC, I guess.

---------- Post automerged at 10:16 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:11 AM ----------

Like, Fable is not scum with Zenzao, Fable is not scum with Cobalt, Fable is probably not scum with miner, and that's just interaction analysis that I can remember right now

 

Pie is pretty independently town.

 

When did this game get so hard.

Read your post Reg, but I'm gonna poke around at dC's ISO but also avoid this game for a bit while I finish my show, I need brainless fun to recharge my enthusiasm.