Sell me on this confidence of this over DC/Blab?

Bullet points will suffice

 

Reg/Fable and Reg/Miner are really gross tinfoils I have involving Reg.

... I'm just going to forget that I even thought of either of these unless it becomes relevant later.

 

Ok, I just read Jurassic Park Adventure QT(well more like skimmed Macho and Pozzai'S post and read your, Reg)
What exactly was supposed to be my takeaway that makes Regfan/Cobalt/Waco/Zen impossible?

 

From the MU Wiki:

Clairvoyant
Role Description:
The Clairvoyant will each night be given a new piece of information relating to the game's mechanics/setup.
Notes:
It varies whether the host chooses/randomizes what information to give out on certain nights or whether the Clairvoyant is given a list of possible questions/topics to learn more about. Sometimes, hosts may even allow the Clairvoyant to freely ask a question about the mechanics of the game, though this would still require a lot of restrictions and might be impossible to do well in practice. Mechanical information could include learning how many mafia started the game, if the game has any third party roles, if the game has any roles that make investigative results not 100% reliable, etc.
Role Type:
Informative
Role Frequency:
Occasionally
Use of Action:
Night
Supported by Modbot:
No
Alternative Names:
Mechanics Seer
Mechanics Oracle
Oracle
Prophet
Mechanics Cop
Loremaster

 

Not that it really helps much, but I was curious.

---------- Post automerged at 18:13 ---------- Previous post was at 18:10 ----------

I agree with pie that this game feels off in a way that's mostly indescribable. For some reason I thought knowing what a Mechanics Oracle was would help, but it's...a weird role to give mafia. The only thing they don't know is what town PRs are in play.

 

Blab is agendaless. He doesn't go and make posts explaining why I'm a villager when he doesn't have a ton of mislynches to work with if he's a wolf.

Not to mention miner isn't doing a whole lot atm and I'm not really seeing the fire that he's convinced you're a wolf which doesn't match how he was acting at the end of yesterday.

---------- Post automerged at 06:18 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:14 PM ----------

Also blab instantly dismissed my Pein tinfoil which granted would be kind of level 1 if someone actually took the bait on that but it looks good all the same.

 

The amount of time spend discussing and planning fake claims?

 

Okay let me ask this then.

Do you see Zen/Blab as a thing?

 

I think it's very plausible, yes? I've only read Zenzao -> Blab and not Blab -> Zenzao though.

Do you have something that points against that?

 

I don't think blab really agreed with any of his walls iirc?

---------- Post automerged at 06:32 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:28 PM ----------

Like I need to look at the order of when stuff happened again but Zen doing a wall on Jari and Blab then saying Jari is a villager after would probably point against them being a thing.

 

I remember an interaction where Zenzao made a huge wall on you and Blab asked him to restate it using _ = _ type things but I don't think that makes them unaligned? If there's more I'll spot it when I go through Blab I guess.

Pretty strongly disagree with this, especially if scum don't have daytalk I've seen scum take opposite stances on reads before especially ones where they don't need they whole scum team to push it through.

 

Despite all the qualms I have (and continue to have) with Reg's play, there is actually a pretty non-negligible part of me who wants to buy that the stuff D4 with Cobalt points to him not being scum? + even though I hated his posts SOD today I actually kind of don't mind his more recent posts today?

The more recent stuff today (not the interactions with me, that's fakeable, I mean some of his posts around the 140pg+ range) + the stuff D4 fits more in line with the sort of analysis/reevaluation I expect out of town-Reg's play? I'm just depressed that if he's town he just went so far off the rails D2-D3 to not only say the sort of things he was saying to me but not even realize what he was doing at all.

I don't fucking know. His interactions with literally the entire team were awful (Vaimes is correct in his assessment that he town read them all and only really dropped the town reads when it became obvious none of them would survive, and I still simply just cannot buy his Waco/Zen reads from D1), and the stuff he wrote about me was so ridiculous and I still hate that now that people have actually brought it up multiple times he's essentially trying to just brush it off and say "oh, that convo will be for postgame".

I mostly just suspect he's been lined up to be the designated mislynch today and want to try to put myself in a headspace where I can think a level ahead of that for a little bit. THIS IS NOT A TOWN READ.

 

Nobody is pushing Reg except you and Vaimes?

 

What? Miner has maintained Reg as his top scum read and DC has spent a lot of effort trying to argue counter to Reg's posts about himself today.

---------- Post automerged at 03:47 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:46 PM ----------

I also swear I remember blab saying some stuff about Reg potentially making sense as solo-scum.

 

I've tried to explain my reads/progression and reasoning behind my D2/D3 play and my reads on the flipped scum as best I can? I'm not sure there's a whole lot more I can do there for you Pie. If there's a specific thing you need me to address let me know and I can go over it again.

Pretty blatantly untrue? Miner certainly is, DC's pushing a Miner/Me world, Blabs pushing the most likely world being me alone? Just none of them are out in the front yelling for a lynch.

 

There isn't. If you're town, just be town.

Also I'm giving myself a checkpoint here to remind myself that it's OK to lock Stanari in as town.

 

I dunno, I am confident that Fable, Vaimes, pienyan, Stanari are town,
confident Reg/dC is not a thing, and slighty less confident, but still pretty ok that Reg/Miner is not a thing.

That resolves to a townwin even with mislynching me somewhere in there.

Lynch Miner

---------- Post automerged at 05:52 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:52 PM ----------
Regfan:
I want you to estimate the chances we win if:

Lynch Miner=>town=>Lynch blab=>town=>Lynch Regfan
Lynch blab=>scum=>Lynch dC
Lynch Miner=>scum=>Lynch dC=>town=>Lynch uhh (fill in your favorite)
Lynch dC=>scum

---------- Post automerged at 05:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:52 PM ----------

that didnt line up correctly ):

---------- Post automerged at 05:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:53 PM ----------

Lynch Miner=>town=>Lynch blab=>town=>Lynch Regfan
Lynch Miner=>town=>Lynch blab=>scum=>Lynch dC
Lynch Miner=>scum=>Lynch dC=>town=>Lynch uhh (fill in your favorite)
Lynch Miner=>scum=>Lynch dC=>scum

 

Funnily enough, I think pie and I are the only ones to have played with scum!Reg?

Kinda just feeling a Miner lynch and then letting you guys reset from there.

---------- Post automerged at 18:58 ---------- Previous post was at 18:55 ----------

Yeah.

Unvote, vote Miner

I'm gonna go get a milkshake.

 

Yeah but I don't listen to wolves so that doesn't count.

---------- Post automerged at 07:03 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:01 PM ----------

Yeah I can switch over to Miner but that would put him at 4 I think? Nobody is gonna hammer if I switch are they?

 

1) 0% of the time; also happens 0% of the time. I don't see a world where both Miner/You are town.
2) 90% win rate probably?
3) I think if you fill in the final lynch with Fable in that world it's a win all the time.
4) 90% win rate probably?