I..really don't know what to make from DC going on "Miner is always the right lynch here, I really think Blab is town" to moving to Blab so quickly. Fuck this game being so complicated.

 

I don't want to lynch blab. I want Reg/Miner resolved before XYLO, I'm still mulling over which one to vote on.

 

tl;dr I trust the townfirm and am signaling a vote of support

wait except the other townfirm just said don't lynch blab yet

fuck

Unvote

I still do think blab is town and the scumteam is Miner/Reg, but I'm willing to follow a plan a townfirm comes up with that has Miner being lynched tomorrow even if it involves blab being lynched today. See also: Just because I think Miner is the right lynch doesn't mean it IS :v

 

This assumption is motivating a lot of my play, yes :v

 

For Pies eyes only;

Spoiler

So out of the 4 scum teams I think is possible I can probably accept losing to Fable/Blab given they'd both have played solid games the entire way through if this is the team from things like the conversations that happened between Zenzao/Blab about Fable. I could even take a loss to Fable/Miner at this point since I seem to be the only person considering Fable as a world and if he's mafia here that means frankly zero townies are town reading me and that means there's no 'mslynch' to spare and I don't know if could ever Lynch him over DC in that pool.

I can't really say the same for Blab/DC in that this day phase just makes so much sense as it being them and a situation like it going Miner->Me and this team winning when I'd called them out is..not something I'd be okay losing to.

And let's be even remotely honest if Miner flips town you're lynching me tomorrow. So at least talk me out of considering proposing and pushing that the focus should be between DC and myself instead? Alternatively convince me not to push a NL and get 3 more RL days to try and solve this.

 

Spoiler

The other thing I was thinking of was a DC lynch today, cuz it feels like whichever of you/Miner is scum, DC is the most likely partner for both of you. But that pretty much 1. tells us nothing, and 2. if he's town we're literally just completely fucked by taking that lynch. It's simply mathematically better to resolve the 1/1 here before LYLO.

I generally just think if you're town, 1. you've been lined up as the designated lynch and 2. Miner's play - not just today, for pretty much the entire game post-D2 - has matched the profile of scum coasting and just cashing in on the easiest targets, which include Jari D3 and you today. I don't give a shit about low effort, it's the difference between Waco's "low effort" and the fact that his low effort was scum-motivated.

The only reason I'd believe Miner is town if we're in a town-you universe is as you said, fonti's read.

I'll do a little bit of diving through D4 in a bit. I don't recall Miner taking a stance either way, which again would fit the profile (i.e. he's not saying anything because he wants to see where the wind blows first), but I don't remember for sure.

---------- Post automerged at 12:27 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:27 AM ----------

Vote: Miner

Placeholder vote. Do not hammer this.

---------- Post automerged at 12:32 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:27 AM ----------

Did fonti ever elaborate on her Miner read anywhere?

 

Spoiler

I'll make one final post explaining why I think DC+Blab is the more probable team when I get home; not something I want to do while phone posting. I don't disagree that there's lots of reasons to find Miner scummy nor do I have a town read him but um he was the reason I spent 3 lynches on a pair of him+1 in WH and in both games he's seemed not to care about the game? Like I'm going to at least put something into Fontis read in that outside of RVS last game she's not misread him? Shrug?

It's just a case of that team makes /so/ much more sense and in that world lynching Miner creates a loss here; the same happens if DC flips town but if we are playing a "Reg gets lynched if we ever mslynch" world i would rather losing voting he team I think the likeliest.

 

She did seem to hold the read since D1 I think (or maybe D2), so eeehhhhhhh

---------- Post automerged at 12:37 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:36 AM ----------

Spoiler

Reg, you've said that exact same thing about Waco when defending yourself re: your progression on him this game day.

Sorry but forgive me if I can't really accept that logic. There's a difference between just "low effort" and stuff that's actually indicative of scum.

 

She had it for D1, dropped it while having Vaimes reaction test Miner via questioning him then and town read him from them after? I think?

---------- Post automerged at 02:42 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:38 AM ----------

Don't get me wrong; there's plenty of concerns I have with his play and its possible that it's DC+Miner here; just find it less likely game state wise.

 

Meh Miner's posts D4 aren't really as bad as what I remembered. At all, really.

Still thinking.

 

Spoiler

Blabs entire ISO this day phase, you can read it yourself but his initial read on DC, me asking him to elaborate on that, him saying he'll get around to it, later just moving DC to the lower section and then having him as a 'last lynch' type preference after he's sorted Miner/Myself treatment just makes so much sense as a partner. Like he's...killing time? Waiting for Miner/Me to get lynched and them to win? I also find his "4 scum" and "Reg is the last scum" type world very hard to buy as a genuine read from him here and him coming out of the Jurassic QT where I literally did spend ~150 posts preparing a fake claim and reading ~60 meta games to see if the fake claim would work or not just feels like him..treading water again and needing to maintain those stances.

---------- Post automerged at 03:11 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:06 AM ----------

His reaction to the Cobalt initial fake claim above doesn't really mesh with his idea of balance / how he's evaluating the game. He thought Cobalt was legitimate as a "5 scum in the game" claim and thought Kai was mafia in that world. But now that Cobalts mafia and Kai's a stronger role than what Cobalt claimed at that time it's "4 scum"?

---------- Post automerged at 03:16 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:11 AM ----------

Spoiler

This is the rest of his D3 posts after the claim. Timing of his Pie vote switched it from 5-4 Cobalt leading to 5-4 Pie leading and can see this making sense as scum hoping I'd be switching back to Pie and them getting a heap of ML's out of it.

---------- Post automerged at 03:18 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:16 AM ----------

I'll go through the DC posts today that make me think it's DC-Blab shortly.

---------- Post automerged at 03:19 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:18 AM ----------

Ah fuck, I've got to leave to go to Origin in a few minutes so DC may have to wait till I get home. The short of it is that I think DC's play today feels like him also just waiting for a Miner lynch -> the chance to lynch me tomorrow for the win. I feel like his read and reasoning on Blab for a lot of the day phase comes across as very awkward.

---------- Post automerged at 03:21 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:19 AM ----------

Ultimately where I'm at is I think I'm the only who is/was considering worlds that involve Fable, which means regardless of the order we do anything we're probably never beating Fable if he is indeed mafia, that means the worlds that remain all involve DC and that's pretty strongly where I'd lynch today.

 

I need to think, but quick question. Would you 1/1 on blab?

 

Okay there's only so long the killing time argument actually holds up for, you know. Like, what, he's STILL killing time? Despite being called out on it and that callout looking like it'll work if you end up flipping? That whole plan falls apart if you flip town, so there's no way he should be trying to get you lynched before Miner in that scenario.

Like. Assuming for a second blab and me are scum and blab is trying to get you and Miner mislynched, why on earth is he lynching you FIRST? You need to be his last lynch or your theory suddenly gains a credibility spike and the whole thing falls to pieces.

...ah, fuck. This points to you being town and blab trying to produce a lynch chain of you -> him -> me while his other scumbuddy (Miner, or I guess Fable...) wins.

Ugh. But if I townread reg now and reg is scum I'm never going to forgive myself.

 

I specifically ask about blab because DC will just put me in the same exact position where I have to just guess who his partner is.

 

Probably not? I would on DC?

---------- Post automerged at 03:24 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:23 AM ----------

Umm DC, Blabs trying to get Miner lynched right now.

---------- Post automerged at 03:25 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:24 AM ----------

And on DC it'd only be a "I'm losing to Fable if he's mafia anyway so w/e" type thing.

---------- Post automerged at 03:26 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:25 AM ----------

I think you'd realise DC & I are pretty hard unaligned even outside of things that have happened today.

 

Also yeah my play today is waiting to lynch Miner and you, because you're both scum and need to die and I settled on that pretty early once I felt better about blab. Your play today has basically been trying to push all of me/Miner/blab to die, so you can win alone at the end.

Y'see? What you're saying is "dC is trying to mislynch Miner and me", whereas from my perspective it's "dC is trying to lynch the scumteam, consisting of Miner and Regfan" and from an external perspective it's "these two players are cross-accusing each other"

also if I was trying to mislynch the both of you I would totally be pushing for Reg first because he's obviously more dangerous. Like, what scumteam saves the hardest mislynch for last? Serious question.

 

Like ultimately the only way we ever beat Fable!Mafia is if I don't get mslynched here and given he's the only person town reading me and I'm the only person even contemplating him imo, that's just not happening?

 

Hang on. Blab is trying to get Miner lynched right now, but ALSO blab thinks you're the last scum?

Which of these is it?

Also I'll take a one-for-one on Reg provided you buttholes don't lynch blab afterwards.

 

Much easier to get me ML'ed in lylo then today. Significantly easier, particularly if we mslynch today, I'd be paranoid hard-lynched in seconds.