Looked at the NK's just so nobody can say "nobody is doing NK analysis", but I think it's not a strong argument either way.
Jan, Kai maybe slightly more likely Reg,
Acio maybe slightly more likely dC?
Not really productive speculating there, imo.

---------- Post automerged at 10:24 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:10 AM ----------

Ok, I am going to be unavailable soon for like 5 hours. Then I am going home and fall into bed immediatly, because I am behind on sleep anyway, but I think I can manage to get up at 3.30am with a lot of coffee if I get to bed early enough.

Gamestate:
Pienyan, Fable and Stanari are just town.
Think only a slam-dunk case on Fable by Reg would have convinced me otherwise, but if Reg had fabricated a slam-dunk case I would probably have only scumread REG more.
Am ok loosing to Fable anyway, to pienyan probably too. Not ok with loosing to Stanari, but I think that selfresolves because pienyan+stanari are the probable 2 NK's if we mislynch and no-lynch, and if it isn't both of them, because surprise-scum or an attempt to doubtcast them, it's probably one of them plus me, cause I don't think Fable gets Nk'd right now. So I am not going to have to think about that.

Think Reg is just more likely here, but not 100% convinced, but I'll hopefully be around for EOD.

---------- Post automerged at 10:25 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:24 AM ----------

Losing to Fable

---------- Post automerged at 10:27 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:25 AM ----------

Lynch Regfan

---------- Post automerged at 10:43 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:27 AM ----------

Just to have a case:
I think his D1 is more suspicious with the focus on townreading and townreading all the wolfes.
He says, scum!Reg wouldn't powerwolf D1 and then reconsider D2, but I don't think he would have been avle to justify townreads on, say, Waco.
I think, if Daychat exists, dC's looking at signup-thread, which he actually did, clears him more than the situation with Cobalt claim clears Reg.
In fact, think Cobalt claiming that on a whim and then Reg helping construct the tracker claim once all townies claimed makes even sense.
Think Regfans behaviour the last 2 dayphases makes more sense as scum than dC's, though that's very superficial.
Think the Jarizok situation looks bad on him, with jari's reads and the jumping at the chance to lynch him/tie him to Zen(though to be fair, I thought Zen/Jarizok made a whole lot of sense with the way Zen went about with his walls.
Think it's not impossible that the Miner situation D3+ plays out like that if scum/scum.
A bunch of little things, like how I can see Reg commenting on wishing he had been shot as scum to Regs comment about talking to Newcomb about gamebalance (though that only if Vaimes was right aboit daychat probably being a thing).
Think in his defensive posts he has been overclaiming responsibility for the scumkills.

---------- Post automerged at 10:43 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:43 AM ----------

But overall, Reg/dC is my POE and Reg feels just more likely right now.

---------- Post automerged at 10:46 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:43 AM ----------

That's it, hope you all appreciate me torturing myself just to chexk in at EOD. See you then.

 

RWBY Mafia Votal 6.2.

Reg [2]: DC, Blab.

Not Voting [4]: Fable, Pienyan, Reg, Stanari.

With 6 votes alive, it will be 4 votes to soft lynch and 5 votes to hard lynch.

 

The one reason to townread Regfan which I actually kind of believe in is that one post to pie in the middle of their fight which kind of reads as too spicy to be faked?

 

These past few days have sucked for a whole lot of RL reasons I don't really want to get into here.

Vote: DC

Placeholder vote for if I like pass out and don't make it back before the deadline or something. I'm not 100% sure that lynching Reg is correct if this flips town, but with the thought I've been able to put into it, it's what I'd feel the most comfortable doing by a long shot.

 

dC's posting today feels pretty blatantly manipulative.

---------- Post automerged at 12:54 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:52 PM ----------

Maybe a better descriptor would be "self-consciously manipulative"?

 

RWBY Mafia Votal 6.3.

Reg [2]: DC, Blab.
DC [1]: Pienyan.

Not Voting [3]: Fable, Reg, Stanari.

With 6 votes alive, it will be 4 votes to soft lynch and 5 votes to hard lynch.

 

Vote: dC

Off the fence I go.*

*Does not preclude future fence-jumping.

 

RWBY Mafia Votal 6.4.

Reg [2]: DC, Blab.
DC [2]: Pienyan, Stanari.

Not Voting [2]: Fable, Reg.

With 6 votes alive, it will be 4 votes to soft lynch and 5 votes to hard lynch.

 

Vote:dC

Not as confident as I was about this when the day started but still feels like the better option.

 

On my way to work; will respond to bigger stuff when I get to a computer there but I 'was' talking to DC like I think he could be town, not sure what's particularly confusing about that given I've made it pretty clear I think there's a few things that point to it being Fable.

Blab asking me to elaborate on the read and then just not particularly caring about it is kind of tilting, getting to the point where if Fables mafia there isn't a lot more I can do here. His response calling my interaction section about myself is pretty misconstrued too, I'm not saying Me->Scum interactions but rather Scum->Me.

Still kind of want to NL here.

---------- Post automerged at 04:34 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:31 PM ----------

One of my qualms with this here is Vaimes would have defended DC (the Cobalt doesn't list 3 scum together argument) and probably would have pushed me whereas you would have pushed DC over me, so he makes the kill that makes this plan super hard mode?

 

A pie kill last night would have been a pretty significant red flag for me.

---------- Post automerged at 02:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:39 PM ----------

dC, do you think you have left your scumrange at any point in this game?

 

Going to try and speed respond to things before my shift starts, got ~8 minutes.

dichotomousCreator - The way I'm reading what you're doing though is ignoring my arguments/reasoning for suspecting Fable because you're worried it'll be too convincing by me as scum..but taking that stance means in the world where we'ere both town you're never opening yourself up to consider the alternative. And I strongly disagree with "Scum play is just doing your town play with small tweaks", it's not that easy and to state that I'm outside of my scum range isn't exactly cheating at all so that accusation of "lying or cheating" is very ???? And you're probably right in that talking with you about Fable probably isn't an optimal use of my time but when the other players alive are mostly MIA/not online at the same time I am/not huge wall posters t hen it doesn't exactly leave me many options.

blab - What about my reasoning / elaboration no Fable do you find unconvincing. What's the points that you're holding to that are making you confident he's town; any form of elaboration would be appreciated when you wake up.

pienyan - Say the mod comes into the game and confirms Blab/Stanari/Me as town, what % odds do you attribute the mafia to DC v Fable in that situation?

 

Regfan! If I successfully manage to stalk you on MS, what would you recommend as reading in terms of your scumgame?

 

I'd probably refer you to Jurassic Park at MTG, that's pretty objectively my best scum game ever. If you're reading a game at MS the White Flag game is probably the one to go for. Think the bigger differences to look for is investment level in the game, less-so activity wise but more emotionally/into wise. As scum I'm a lot more mechanical/robotic.

 

Reg is there a reason you're not talking to me?

 

Three hours left!

 

I don't think there's any such thing.

In the sense that I'm manipulating Reg, or everyone else? 'cuz I stated my goal for the day upfront and have stuck to it the whole way through, so I'm not sure what outcome you THINK I'm trying to push people towards (hint: it's "lynch Reg, he's scum")

What I'm doing is not agreeing with your Fable arguments. Like, I check bits of them and every time I do it's just "I don't interpret that post that way".

The trust tell thing is basically me saying I don't believe in scumranges because anything you can do as town you CAN mimic as scum. Maybe it's just me? Anyway the point I'm making is that IF you hypothetically had a scumrange and doing something outside of it guaranteed you were town, what is the difference between that something being a general behaviour pattern and that something being saying "This is a confirmed town game"?

Nope. Like I said before...I think my scumrange, at least, includes all possible town behaviour for me, so it's impossible for me to leave it. This may explain why I always end up in the scummy pile at some point actually.

So anyway, I'm going to yell about Reg as long as I'm alive so you should probably:
- Remove me if you might want to lynch Fable
- Remove Reg if you're not interested in lynching Fable

In the former scenario you get a chance to investigate whether you think Fable is the last scum, while in the latter you have Fable as locktown so there's no need to worry about order and I have no chance tomorrow (while Reg just might)

(on a final note, Fable voting for me is HIM making tomorrow hard mode if he's scum, by keeping Reg around to push for his lynch)

---------- Post automerged at 09:03 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:59 AM ----------

So yeah tl;dr if you're scum and not Reg or Fable you take either me or Reg+Fable to final four, so no useful info there

If you're scum and Reg you take Fable to final four mostly out of necessity given your positions to date

If you're scum and Fable, you take ME to final four because that's basically a slam dunk.

So, really don't think it's Fable here and for crying out loud lynch Reg's face off tomorrow. Vaimes specifically said "don't give him a pass through endgame" which I'm not doing and which you shouldn't be doing either.

 

I think if you're town the game probably ends in a few hours so don't particularly think there's any reason to? If you want to run through what I'm misreading about your play or explain the disconnect I'm looking at with how your Miner/Cobalt/Blab progressions occurred and your confidence level in the thread I'm all ears though?

 

also if I want reg lynched it's so I don't spend the entire next day having a hernia when you people manage to swing onto Fable

 

MTGS isos are physically painful. Thanks.