But unless there are 3 deep-ish wolves your baseline argument makes little sense.

You are taking a bad feeling of the past into a new game. And I don't know what it is doing here?!

Evaluate the gamestate without going into the day thinking "we will mislynch today" and maybe you actually get a read on those people that is useful?!

Like I am not trying to be more of a dick than normal here .. but if you go into it expecting failure .. how are you preventing the "expected result" of lynching a town by projecting on players?

I just don't get that stance at all.

 

mood

 

This is a pretty bad look

LT, Partially tonal, partially agreeing on some reads, and don't think the cases made on you made much sense

 

In the world you are talking about Newcomb basically would be pushing on v/v waco/shadow right?
He would not push a "there is always at least one wolf between them" world if one of his partners was between them?!

Yes that is a possible play, but it has very little reward overall.

I think waco is likely town myself and I have a scumread on shadow. I don't need the "one between them read". it is a bad read overall because they could both be town if I am wrong on something. Which means nothing for an unaligned read, but loses the game.

 

A D1 mislynch on lynchbait still provides an important social function!

 

The point is you don't need to be a deepwolf to avoid being lynched on D1. There's no interactions or connections or anything. You just need to be, like, above the scumminess bar to stay out of contention. Pretty much all scum can manage this. Not all town can, not least of all b/c they're not thinking about it. Add to this the fact that D1 bussing is uncommon (i.e. it's harder for scum to pick up a wagon at all) and the contention pool on D1 seems to be all town with alarming regularity.

Like. It's not just "a bad feeling" from previous games, it's observing a pattern that plays out D1 and observing that it's done so again here.

OTOH I haven't had time to think past "this is bad" to "how should I do something about it?" so my approach is basically a super unrefined "who's just trying to clear the bar today?"

And I mean, the answer to that was Newcomb for me so shrug.

 

Not sure how to make the point more clear than Jan's already made it. Maybe try running through a few hypothetical reductio ad absurdum examples and see where you end up?

I'll also add that in my experience, D1 scum lynches are the result of a solidly posting towncore and scum just like.... not really being able to keep up / be towny, not necessarily making a post that's outing / fucking up.

 

I mean -- I think shadows read on Newcomb was a total airball.

Cobalts read is 60% frustration about Newcombs reaction. The part left that he is pushing .. is understandable?!
But I don't think that every player in every game has to have 90% spicy reads.
Sometime you agree with other reads because you have similar conclusions

 

Where I am at the moment. The group of 4 at the bottom is unsorted except dC

Jan
Vaimes

Newcomb

Fontisian
Cobalt

Mal thug/Asmodeus
tom
----------D1 Lynch line----------
Stanari
Gemma
Jarizok
dC

Shadow

 

So your answer is Newcomb and who else?

If you want to protect waco/shadow/jari .. then you can't give me 1 potential scum and tell me that this is the only solution.
Who are the potential partners to Newcomb that would fit in your world of "d1 is a time of depression and mislynches".

I just don't understand being tunneled on one person here. You should have 2-4 suspects if you think the other 3 are likely town.

 

I can't quite tell what absurdum result you want me to arrive at, but eh maybe I've been playing in the wrong/different metas recently.

 

Have you read my short case on Gemma being town?
Don't think she will be the lynch today anyway, but I would like your opinion since you have her fairly low.

 

The lack of suspects is my play sucking ass today. I SHOULD have more suspects, correct, but I haven't played well enough to find them >_>

I suppose in some sense this means I should defer to other people rather than pushing my own shit :/
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I don't really want to rely on scum being bad to avoid mislynching :V

 

I see what you're saying on easy lynches and I'm not saying NEVER because that'd be dumb but I think it's a lot more AI to catch

In that world Newcomb is scum, yes. But it's possible the "one wolf between them" thing is a soft bus on Waco if he doesn't actually intend on lynching or lumping Waco this early, but thinks he might flip down the line.

So basically I'm not ruling out Newcomb/Waco but I think Newcomb/Shadow would make zero sense and I think Shadow is villa so the Newcomb push is just a bad look to me because he's so noncommittal on Waco with essentially, supposedly the same read.
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Font's recent efforts have made me more willing to consider alternate worlds wrt Fonti, while Newcomb's have only reaffirmed my reads.

That's why I was willing to ease up if Font was also feeling one of my worlds in which you're scum.

I see why that looks opportunistic though. Worded poorly on my part.

 

Not gonna lie.

A part pf me is afraid that Newcomb is fooling me for the first time in a long while, but I just don't think he is.
And if the team si something like Newcomb/Fonti/x then we can keep that in mind and be careful that they won't endgame without doule and triplechecking things.

Newcomb/Fonti/Tom is basically the one team I might lose to right now unless all my reads are wrong this game.
Which would be a stacked team overall, but then so many other factors would have to be fucked up.

Plus Newcomb si a palyer that should be even ore obvious when the game goes on and he has to find lynches as scum.
Easy to get some on d1 .. but d2/3 it gets really hard.

 

dC, I have mad respect for your WIM and general play. I also give you lots of props if you're pulling a mini-Crunkus and this is performance art as a wolf. But if you're a villager like I suspect, and I say this in the fondest way possible, you are running around a calm placid meadow with your hair on fire. You are truly, truly Lost In Space.

Like, take a chill pill, my dude. It's Day One. Even if the towncore is absolutely lousy with witches, and I don't think it really is, simply pointing at the consensus-y wagons and going "MISLYNCH BAIT MISLYNCH BAIT RED ALERT" is just... super unproductive.

Sometimes people who have uninspired D1s are just wolves.

I'm pretty comfortable just shotgunning through the PoE until such time as I have a valid reason not to. A valid reason isn't, like, rampant paranoia that the game is on fire and everyone who seems town is a witch and everyone who seems uninspired is struggling town.

 

Reasons why shadow wagon feels bad:

- My top scums were/are all on it at some point
- I have a strong townread on Shadow wrt mindmelding
- Newcomb's reasons are weak at best, not logical progression and cherrypicked

Things I want to do:

- Lynch Waco for fakefeels almost the entire game, piggybacking onto pushes of other players esp. Newcomb onto Shadow, when I don't feel his shadow read organically originated
- Lump Newcomb for optimal gamesolving, either through death or survival with no red check claimed to confirm if town and a definite check if scum

 

What reads do you agree on?

 

I did read that. It could be plausible, but I don't have much of a frame of reference on Gemma to have a strong opinion on whether or not it works.

And after Princess (where I wagoned her as it was) the play style shift is making harder