I don't think the legions would have even a slight chance of surviving unless he's there to personally lead them.

 

-Epilogue, Book 3

This is a reference to the Dead King. Black wouldn’t be the representative because he flat out wouldn’t agree to something like this. He wants to beat the Crusade his way. Plus he and Malicia are on a break, even though there’s still something there.

 

So this chapter was a mixed bag. Long story short, the whole thing boils down to the classic 'We have a huge, complex, precisely timed plan, but literally none of us know what it is; hopefully, literally nothing goes wrong and we can see the future.' And on one hand, I love plans like that, because when you pull them off successfully, it all looks amazing. On the other hand, I hate plans like that, because pulling them off successfully has to be done two-fold--in and out of story. Doing it in story is the easy part, but making it not bullshit out of story is tougher, because all plans like this are based entirely around the idea that you can successfully predict and prepare for everything ahead of time and have absolutely everything go right. And--

Yeah, that. Thank you, Cat, but acknowledging it doesn't make this any better. So far, this plan relies on precisely times releases of information, which the Woe can at least control, so that's potentially okay. It also involved magically altering all of their memories and dropping all of them into a situation blind, with the intention of said release of information forcing all of them to do exactly the right thing. It depends on the Thief of Stars, just so far, to behave exactly as they foresee, and for them to have all the information they need about both her and the Skien beforehand. They need to catch the Thief and ask her predefined questions to make themselves react exactly as they want themselves to, have multiple different plans going to muddy the waters, have one of their own absent, and--here's a big one--need to have Akua pulling all the strings.

Like, holy fuck, this is the very first part of this complicated plan and I'm already struggling to see how it doesn't come falling apart.

Meanwhile in Procer, stuff is happening. This chapter was fun, but not really informative--it's very clearly a setup chapter for next time, when shit will presumably go down. It's really nice to see Cordelia's thought processes, and goddamn, after so much time in Callow, do I ever enjoy seeing dissenting opinions that matter.

Also, the story remembered the Augur exists, which is simultaneous nice and late. Strap in, because this has kind of been bothering me--this whole (main) chapter is about an absurd strategy to just try to get around dealing with a precog, which is plenty cool. You know what's been sitting around for awhile? Another precog. It really felt like the story as a whole just forgot about the Augur for awhile--that is, various things in the story have not seemingly been going the way you'd expect when Procer has a precog on their side and their enemies don't have any real way to counter that. I mean, sure, Black's proposed the idea that if they have no plan, the Augur won't be able to see what their planning, and while we haven't confirmed or denied that, let's say it's true.

So what? As just one example, Black 100% had a plan down by the Vales. Black had a fucking complex series of interconnected plans with multiple fail points that required things to go exactly as he predicted on multiple levels to work. That's the type of thing you'd figure the Augur would have torn apart, but instead, Klaus and the Procerans were taken off-guard by literally every tactic used against them. The heroes constantly played into the enemy's hands, making the worst choices at every turn for what might be understandable reasons for people on the ground, but not for people with the benefit of foresight. The White Knight went to the wrong valley. The minor Heroes went for the Dragon. The army focused on the wrong fronts. And all of this was after it was specifically established that the Procerans now had mages to carry messages swiftly.

Like, the early parts of the battle are framed as being about showing how Grem is a better general than Klaus, which, sure, fair enough--that was established as being true books ago. But you know what Klaus has that Grem doesn't? A family member who's a literal oracle.

Now, sure, there are things I can buy. I'll bitch forever about all the dumb shit that went on in Cat's fight with the heroes up North, but, as long as we ignore that the Pilgrim is also a precog, I can at least believe that the people there are vulnerable to surprises; Cordelia very specifically doesn't have their backs. But then we get stuff like the southern front, the excommunication, and even the Dead King saying that Cordelia just didn't see any of this coming.

And I'm just like 'Bitch what?' Because why the hell didn't Cordelia see this coming? Of all the people in the story, she has the best possible reason to see things coming--namely, a BFF who can see the goddamn future and regularly tells her about it. Anyone else remember back in the extra chapters where the Augur was countering assassination and subversion attempts across the country, tracking individual military movements to allow Klaus to hit them at the best possible time, and even predicting the specific tactics taken during battles?

Where the hell was that shit these last two battles? Like, if her limits were specifically pointed out and we were shown how Black and Cat were avoiding them, then sure, that'd be one thing, but we've instead been shown precisely what she can do and all of them have been stumbling into her power half-cocked instead.

But really, it's just another question to add to the pile at this point. Slide 'Why the fuck is the side with two precogs the one that's constantly being taken by surprise here?' under 'Why is the side with nine heroes losing to these faceless nobodies?' and 'Why is the guy who literally talks to angels that can see and judge the world being taken off-guard by tricks like this?' and 'Why are Black and Cat's plans not literally the dumbest things ever in this context?'

 

I mean, there's also the fact that the Augur is in Procer, with Cordelia, and not with the armies. So, she doesn't exactly have a way to tell them how the enemy (Black etc.) will act.

It's been specifically mentioned Procer does not have an effective means of scrying between their armies, so getting reliable intel from the Augur isn't going to happen.

Plus, we don't know HOW the Augur's abilities work. They may not even work when there's multiple armies involved. She could also be distracted by other stuff.

Also, where was it mentioned Pilgrim is a precog? I must have missed that, he's just very experienced and able to react quickly/predict moves. And he has the truth teller ability thing.

 

First of all, no; as we saw in the Extra Chapters, Cordelia was perfectly capable of communicating the Augur's findings to soldiers across the country, either because of getting notified that far ahead of time or just by communicating it quickly; that's a non-issue.

Second of all, no; Procer began to establish mage lines and learn scrying prior to the Crusade and has, in point of fact, used it multiple times on screen. They're not as good as Praesi mages, but for passing messages, they get the job done just fine. We literally see Klaus with a mage-message passer in Red The Flowers and this Extra Chapter literally had Cordelia and Klaus communicating from opposite sides of Procer.

Third of all, hell no. We saw damn well how her power worked in Warden I and II, wherein--in-between pimp-slapping assassination attempts from across the country, because Cordelia and the Augur were still in the north-most Principality at the time--the Augur was the key to winning a fight with at least seven armies; Klaus, a somewhat unreliable Prince on his side, a flat-out traitorous Prince on his side (Augur saw it coming and countered that shit), a main force of two Princesses that hated each other (Aisne and Aequitan; Augur predicted the exact strategies they would use), and two Princes behind them that Cordelia flipped to her side with the Augur's help, independently of one another. A brief skim of that chapter also mentions 'the centre of his formation was not made out of Lycaonese infantry but of the armies of Lyonis and Segovia, themselves bordered by Brus and Lange'. So that was at least ten armies on the other side of the country, I'm just counting the ones with united loyalties together. This fight with Black actually probably involved fewer distinct armies, if anything.

So...no to literally every word of that, actually.

As for the Pilgrim:

So yeah, just for the record--two precogs, with the Augur presumably the far better of the two, as she's able to arrange all the pieces to go Cordelia's way even before she had the scrying techniques that were passed to her before the Crusade and was able to deal with multiple armies even while countering multiple other events around the country, with enough detail to predict not only precisely when things she saw would happen, but also to predict specific tactics used during a battle.

 

I disagree about the Augur because is made about her being limited in usefulness. On my phone so I can’t bring up exact points but most of what she says is kinda garbage. It takes multiple people around her constantly to get piece stuff of information out of her babbling. Sure there where ten armies gathered for that one battle but they were on two opposing sides. It’s not like each of them showed up independently and scrapped it out. Two sides showed and some people on each side were willing to turn coat. That’s a few easy information points for them to slowly get the Augur to predict. Cordelia has also been able to direct the Augur sometimes.

As for the communications they don’t have long range scrying. It’s mentioned that the Empire has set up multiple waypoints across Praes as Callow to set up long range scrying. Procer has just gotten the hang of short range scrying and probably doesn’t have the technique or time to set up these long relays. They have other means of communication, but nothing fast enough to react within days. So Black’s plans at the vale weren’t something they could warn against if it was even seen. There were plans we never saw enacted and probably contingencies in place for those plans. Augur can’t have seen every single one and communicated to Klaus in time to make a difference. Even if they did it’s not like her predictions are an exact outline. They’re vague riddles and phrases that analysts sitting around her parse out. Blacks plan to trick the White Knight wasn’t thought of hugely in advance. It was another contengency in place in case of certain events happening. If the White Knight had never made the challenge and he had gotten the advice to go to another pass it would have been moot. Much of the vales was played by ear in the first place which is a weakness of seers in the story.

 

Loved the extra chapter.

It really highlight how out of depth Proceran nobility is. Cordelia moans about splitting the sky and using the undead when that's the de facto way of waging war in Praes. She compares using Named to herding cats when in the East the Named are tightly linked with the army. It really makes her sympathetic because as good as she is at politics, she's completely blind to the bigger forces of the world and so it's almost inevitable her plans will be undone.

She tried to use the Heavens for her political goals when in reality the Heavens were using her to achieve their goal of killing the abomination that is Cat and removing practical evil from the board.

 

@Ryuugi: I think the Augur is combination of a couple things.

Whether or not Above and Below have an explicit 'move-countermove' arrangement going is up for debate, but whether or not Names have a pretty strict power-balance is not. Name powers can brutally powerful in the right hands, but every single Name and Aspect has limiters and weaknesses built in.

Precogs not being able to predict plans that haven't been formulated is one clear limitation across the board, Good and Evil. However, for that general weakness of all precogs, there will almost certainly be ones specific to each Name, including the Augur.

The Augur's general Luna Lovegoodiness seems like Name amplification of her own previous characteristics, which act only as a sort of soft limiter - it was shown that while the Augur's prediction generally come out cryptic, she's perfectly capable of rendering them into plain speech.

One hard limiter that I strongly suspect is that the Augur is limited in what she can see of the future regarding things that aren't directly aimed at her, with Procer considered as an extension of herself since she's a non-combat Named, who are almost as weak as a normal mortal in terms of personal strength. In that vein, while she easily ferrets out things like assassination attempts and betrayals orchestrated by Praes against Procer, and the internal politics of Procer as threats to Procer's cohesion as a whole, something like the plots of other countries against eachother is something she can exert little visibility over.

As exhibit A of this (and my only explicit evidence, admittedly), I offer you the Augur's own admission: she didn't see Hierarch coming at all. Because, I suspect, the Tyrant creating him wasn't aimed at Procer in any way, but at the Bard.

As far as further (shakier and vaguer) proof, I point to Procer's geopolitical state at the beginning of the story and how it's progressed - Procer is greatly united under Cordelia and has been dueling effectively with Praes for a while, but if the Augur could just foresee as she liked into other countries, half of all the Procer interludes wouldn't have been about Cordelia hauling ass trying to get the other Good countries in on the 10th Crusade.

The second hard limiter is I suspect is Good related - I don't think the Augur can offensively tell the future. By this, I don't think the visions she receives can be given with a mind to action or making the first move, only reaction and warding off the dangers of Evil. It fits every foretelling she's handed over - always looming dangers, threats in the making, outside and internal plots, assassinations, etcetera; never 'the Legions will be weak after this particular battle so ambush them then'. It also fits the story elements of prophecy, IE, the heroes gather and go here to avoid doom befalling the world. Cordelia can certainly turn those foretellings into offensive moves with her own countermoves to the plots, but I haven't seen any that are explicit 'here's a weak point, go exploit it'.

(Evil precogs, I suspect, have different sorts of classic weakness. I'd put money on them only receiving prophecies of their own doom, often in the self-fulfilling variety, or only receiving portents in forms that are fatally misleading when brought against Good and it's heroes. I'm pretty sure at least one Dread Emperor quote somewhere was him basically killing himself by predicting his own invincibility.)

 

You apparently missed larged swaths of the story, including Warden and the recent chapters because, first of all, Cordelia and Klaus had a conversation despite being on opposite sides of the country--her in Salia and him in the Vales--so the issue of communication is outright false as I already said.

Second of all, Cordelia has asked the Augur to explain her visions and she does so. So that's outright false even before you get into the absurd detail frequently involved.

Third of all--two sides? You apparently missed that part of my post, because it was two sides made out of ten armies, but on army had betrayed the coalition to go it's own way before the start, two had flipped to the opposit side prior, two were plotting to betray each other, and one was undecided and under suspicion. The battle at the Vales and in the North were between far more united groups, as I pointed out.

And finally--don't be silly. Black's asspull of a plan in the Vales had multiple major fail points, as simple as 'Send the White Knight over there' and 'Tell them not to chase the Dragon. His plan to trick the White Knight was prepared far, far in advanced as Warlock had been working on it for quite awhile, along with other aspects of the plan, and they'd had to prepare a literal fake body, and the entire plan was built on it.

No. Don't be silly.

Well, sorta kinda? Named in the East being linked to the army, I mean--rather notably, only three of the Named we've seen on the Eastern side even care about the army, unless you're talking about the former Kingdom of Callow. For the most part, Named were very independent from the army, though, even with the reforms.

Possibly! Although, remember, she was the only person who was able to physically see the Hierarch when he was using Receive, though she couldn't predict him--and the noteworthy part was the fact that she couldn't predict him. And while this could apply to some of the issues faced, but it should still have screwed over Black, no?

I think it was made pretty clear that that wasn't a matter of location, but of Hierarch weirdness. To quote:

My issue is actually that we're given no reason why this isn't the case, actually. Which is most of the issue I have; her having a weakness like this would be fine, but we're long since past the point where it should have come up with nothing showing any such thing and her sight proving constantly absurd.

Except she did this repeatedly during the Civil War, showing Klaus where to ambush armies and hit supply lines?

 

Have you considered that the Augur's reach may be limited to Procer? That is, threats within, and to Procer? Since the Crusade was technically invading another country at the time, her abilities may not have worked.

Also, now we have her warning Cordelia of 'Woe to the north and Woe to the south', which isn't surprising because hey, Cat and the Woe are working to get Keter attacking Procer.

We just don't know enough about the Augur's abilities to say 'oh, she's a surefire see all precog'. We actually have proof that if someone takes advantage of an opportunity, they can pull stuff off without her knowing.
From Heroic Interlude: Riposte:
There was a long pause. “A flock of turtledoves flew east this morning, as the bells rung,” the Augur mentioned.

Cordelia did not sigh, though not for lack of desire.

“You will have to explain this to me,” she reminded her cousin, who blinked in surprise.

“Ah, yes. I forget, sometimes,” she explained. “One of your diplomatic couriers was intercepted.”

“I thought you could warn us before that happened,” Klaus broke in, frowning.

“It wasn’t planned,” Agnes replied sleepily. “Just an opportunity taken.”

This proves that while she may be able to predict PLANS she can't predict real time action on a Battlefield. And we know that Black makes so many plans and backup plans that she can't predict which ones he may switch to using.

So yeah, she can probably predict what the Woe is doing now because they seem to have A plan, albeit convoluted. But she apparently can't predict people who are just winging it. Or selecting from pre-prepared contingencies.

Edit: Also, you're talking as if she is laying out the battle strategies Klaus was using to win the various engagements in unifying Procer. She was just telling him 'there's an army here, you could ambush them.'
Klaus is supposedly a badass highly experienced General. He's likely getting told where the enemy is - General Location - and then defeating the enemy with his own tactics.

I don't think the Augur is saying, go ambush this army here, by doing X, when they counter with Y do Z.

 

Foreseeing and preventing an attack by the ratlings before they crossed into Procer was literally the first thing the Augur ever did. Similarly, she was able to predict that Malicia was preparing traps and knives for Cordelia long before they entered Procer; to quote, '“Oh,” the Augur blinked owlishly. “The Empress waits. She has knives for you.”' Seeing as the incident we're discussing led to Black invading Procer--as was his plan all along--I can't see how that wouldn't apply, even if we assumed stringent Proceran limits.

And, again, the idea that 'Black makes so many plans and backup plans that she can't predict which ones he may switch to using' is garbage in this scenario because everything he did at the Vales was based on months of prep and everything going perfectly.

Also, check again.

 

So again, she can predict where an Army will be. Or where an invasion will come from. That doesn't mean she can predict what TACTICS that army will use during the battle, and even if she can I doubt she relays every possible tactic that can/will be used in the battle.
Just knowing where an army will be offered Klaus plenty of advantage in any fight he got into. Especially since she can say what that army is doing.

And so she predicted some of Malicia's moves, it's also mentioned that Malicia and Cat still have operatives working in Procer.

There's a huge difference between saying something like 'They'll be at the River, waiting for reinforcements and supplies' and 'They'll be at the river, the left flank will have 3 sentries asleep, attack from that side and then spear towards the mess, that's where the commander will be.'
A commander as experienced as Klaus supposedly is can make a lot happen just knowing where and when an enemy is camped. The Augur may have told him information that helped, but it would have been him making the plans and reacting to how the battle unfolds.


And yeah, there was months of preparation for the invasion by Black. Months. To make plans. Back up plans. Contingencies. You make it sound like he planned every single thing that happened in that battle. And somehow the Augur is supposed to predict exactly which ones are used, which are discarded? No.

He made plans and strategies, some plans probably came into effect, others were probably discarded. That's how most battles go. Black did not plan the battle's current outcome, nor afaik did he ever state his plan all along was to end up invading Procer. That seemed more like a decision he made after his forces ended up on that side of the aftermath of the Vales.

All told, yeah, she's got some useful skills. But somehow I don't think she's all-seeing, able to report on every single possibly threat, outcome, or battle.

 

If you recall, Augur predicted and defended against assassination attempts on Klaus to the point of knowing exactly when they would occur and how to stop them. She also said things like '“He’ll win,” the Augur said. “On all paths, he wins.”', so your assertion that she's limited to knowing where people will be is more than a little laughable. And, no--she didn't just tell Klaus where to strike, she told them when the enemy would be worst off. Not that any of that matters because...

This is hilariously wrong. Like, we saw Black's plans and there were multiple, major fail points that he had no real way of dealing with. The White Knight had to be in the Lower Valley to fall for his trap; if this didn't happen, the plan fails. The Heroes that were at the Northern Valley had to be lured away and prevented from becoming the army's rear guard or the plan fails. If the Witch of the Woods battles in a position that isn't specifically prepared for them, the plan fails.

Even if we assume that telling people where to be is the extent of the Augur's power, utterly ignoring all the evidence to the contrary, it doesn't matter--telling people where to be would have ruined Black here, because that's still a phenomenal advantage. This shouldn't be surprising since, as a rule, most of Black's plans kind of hinge on someone not coming up to the target and telling them where not to be ahead of time. Like, there were individual sentences she could have said that would have won Procer the Vales by all accounts.

 

I give up. You apparently refuse to accept anything except your own headcannon as to how her powers work.

I'll just point this out, all we saw were the plans that Black actually used. We didn't see how many he may have discarded once he saw how the enemy army was deploying.

 

I was under the impression the Augur and GP did fuck all mostly because the Heavens purposefully sabotaged the beginning of the crusade so they could take over. The Gods Above aren't all that big on pragmatism and Cordelia is all about that shit. She'd make a deal with Cat if she had the political capital whereas the Heavens are all about killing her and Black.

Plus, villains always win in the beginning so they seem like a legitimate threat, only to be put down later. It's like, narrative law no 3.

 

Huh...? This is...kind of a hilarious thing to say. You were the one who said:

All of which were completely made up and disproven by things in canon that I cited. But I'm the one refusing to accept anything but headcanon? You have literally made up half your explanations to try and come up with things to stop the Augur based on nothing in canon. If there were actual evidence that these things held the Augur back, that'd be fine; it's the fact that there isn't that's the problem.

We literally got an entire monologue about the points that he had to hit to deal with the Crusaders...

There is absolutely nothing to suggest any of this, or even really any reason why it would be the case--it's not like the Heroes don't listen when Angels start talking. It's also not really at all the case that Good isn't about pragmatism--in point of fact, the Bard was doing pragmatic Good before most of Calernia has writing. The Yantei are a Good Nation that has a villain and hero sharing power, the Free Cities are four Good nations and three villainous ones allied against external threats, redemption stories have been called out as a thing multiple times, etc. Now, in this particular case, the Gods Above might want Cat dead regardless of that, but they don't need to sandbag the war to accomplish that--if the White Knight goes to judge her, he won't stop because of Cordelia's opinion on the matter.

Meanwhile, the first step always works for villains. But we're on step fifty, and I think it's important to remember that, actually, no, that's not how villains supposedly work in Guide--historically speaking, Praes has warred with Callow once a generation for something like a thousand years, and in that time they've managed to win twice, with Triumphant holding it for five years and the Conquest lasting twenty. Literally every other time Praes sought to invade Callow, it resulted in humiliating defeats, like the Wizard of the West basically soloing Nefarious and his entire army. Cordelia even comments that this was how the rest of the continent perceived Praes--noteworthy because after several hundred years, a Triumphant or Terribilis crawled out of it, and an utter laughingstock for the rest of it's history.

Besides, if they needed to win at the beginning, what would you call holding Callow for twenty years and plunging Procer into a decades long Civil War, while destabilizing the Free Cities? And even if we ignored the fact that we're way beyond anyone's step 1--the Crusaders fought two battles here, and lost them both.

 

The extent of Pilgrim's divination abilities are unknown, but I imagine they're limited at best. He's got too much else going on for him.

For some reckless speculation, I figure frequency is an obvious restriction. He probably has a higher share of "useful" visions than the Augur does, but can only get one per momentous occasion or something. Augur also can fully interpret what she sees, while Pilgrim likely can't, or at least can't to the same extent. He's on the side of Good and experienced as all hell, so he'll always get something out of it, but may not be able to during the planning phase of things. I suspect a third limitation is intent. Augur can specifically look for something, while Pilgrim lacks fine control. He can expect something relevant, but not like she can.

Now, what - if anything - the Pilgrim got from that prayer was either nothing major or it got eaten up by that demon of Absence. Not gonna pretend that either are satisfying answers, but his precog abilities probably aren't that much. A step up from the providence behind the White Knight, but he's no true seer.

As for the Augur, there's something odd about Klaus never getting anything. They have scrying now, and while it's not as advanced as Praes' they can still go from Salia to the Vales. They can't get over the mountains to reach Milenan's army that went through the Stairway, but she's not sending them warning anyway. The whole point was for them to get smashed, if not in that particular fashion. But I'm not sure why they didn't seem to get anything at the Vales (or at least nothing relevant). We don't know all the Augur's limitations. She can't predict improvisation, is distracted as all hell, and probably has some sort of frequency and specificity limit (the first of which is a killer. Cordelia's probably playing a whole lot of triage, made worse by the Augur's personality), but I figure there's got to be a true blind spot or something.

I found another (albeit minor) failing of hers, though.

She saw the elves coming (which bursts the border limit theory), but when asked couldn't figure out their intent, only their location. They weren't searching or fetching anything at all. The elves came to kill Akua because of her Hellgate ritual, at least until the Bard told them to fuck off. I suppose something apparently specific to elves isn't very useful, but it's something.

Also begs the question of "where's the warning about Diabolist?" The elven king saw it coming, and the Bard called him a "bargain-bin prophet", so gotta wonder why no peep came from Agnes.

I think that there's some limit to fortune-telling, something about the very nature of it in this world. Her line from Warden I saying that "all paths" lead to Klaus surviving may be part of it. There isn't a script that she can peek and steal answers from. When shittalking the Forever King, Bard (probably as much of an expert as we'll ever get) called it reading the weaves. There is not one possibility to find, but an array. The Augur sees them all, but doesn't know which one will come to pass until it is set in stone. Sometimes, there's her Stairway prediction where she doesn't see it being discovered early. A far in advance thing, but implies that as far ahead as it is in the weave it is a fairly set point. Ironically enough, "the first step always works" is what pops into my head.

But beyond that?

The Augur is most reliable when predicting things that are already in motion. She can look farther ahead, but uncertainty creeps in as there are still decisions people can make to change things. This is where the "planned vs improvisation" flaw comes in. When Black or Malicia sign the order, that path becomes the main one. She can see that, and tell Cordelia. It's why Assassin can't simply kill Cordelia. By the nature of his Role, he has to be ordered to kill her. But if an envoy is intercepted as an attack of opportunity? The Decision to strike is too soon to the occurrence for warning. She can only see it happen, and tell Cordelia afterwards (albeit before a different messenger could).

These rules are going to be different for each fortune teller. Narrow yet deep, or wide yet shallow and whatnot. An old school prophecy-type would read the weave perfectly, but only on that one string. The Augur can see it fully, and is therefore limited.

I don't think this fully explains things, but I think it's part of the framework of how the Augur (and the Skein) work.


And Ryuugi, your rageboner's showing. It's not that you don't have a point - oracles are sometimes like speedsters: they're as powerful as the plot needs them to be. Until or unless Errata further outlines her limits, wondering what the hell Agnes was doing is a relevant question, and probably still will be afterwards.

But the way you're describing things tosses aside the talents of Cordelia or Klaus as being even relevant in favor of hyping the Augur. Probably not what you think, but it's how it comes across. She's not omniscient. Telling Cordelia that Malicia's knives are coming isn't pimpslapping assassination attempts, it's pretty broad strokes (and also hella obvious, but thanks Cousin Agnes for caring). Rereading Warden I, I see her predictions with Lange being the same as a spy report. She told Klaus where Lange is marching and camping and whatnot, and it's Klaus' military expertise that instinctively identified the most vulnerable spots and turned that into stunning results.

 

This has a number of good guesses and catches, but the issue is that it relies almost entirely on supposition--which is, admittedly, my problem with much of the series, but still. If the Augur had any weaknesses or limits like this, there's been plenty of time to point them out, test them, examine them, and justify them, but that hasn't happened--and so whenever anything like this happens, there's basically no explanation or justification. This is, broadly speaking, my problem with Masego, who's flayer of miracles schtick means he can basically do whatever the plot needs him to do and is godlike, until the plot needs him to stop being useful. And yeah, sure--part of the point of Guide is that is runs on a narrative, but there's a difference between it running on an internal narrative and an external one.

Someone like the Augur is, quite possibly, even worse--because we've seen her predict huge amounts of things with enough detail to exceptionally fine-tune things--as an example, the part you quoted about how it was difficult to understand what the elves were after proves two major points:

1) It confirms yet again that the Augur's sight is not limited to Procer or even to events related to it, as the Elves never touched Procer and nothing they did really affected it, they left the Golden Bloom and entered Callow, and were aimed for a Praesi villain. This, in and of itself, is a huge deal.

2) The fact that it was difficult for Augur to determine what the Golden Bloom was up to because they were elves kind of implies that had they not been elves, it would have been possible to figure out what they were up to--literally, the exception that proves the rule.

Taking those two things alone--the fact that the Augur can notice people untied to Procer and she can figure out, broadly or specifically, the intentions behind specific actions. Even if we assume that's the only thing she see for people out that far, that's a huge deal. Take that knowledge and lot at every military or political decision Procer has made in the entire story; is the result at all what you would expect? There's a disconnect between everything we know about her abilities and everything that seemingly results from them, with no clear way to bridge the gap.

Simply put, my argument isn't that Augur should have kicked Cat and Black's teeth in--it's that we haven't been given any reason to believe she couldn't have, whether in the short term or the long term, and that's a problem. Much like it's a problem that any time the Woe are faced with a problem, I kind of have to wonder why Masego can't just technobabble it away, because apparently he can copy the powers of Demons, specifically including the Demon of Order's ability to edit aspects of reality. Can this resolve problem X, where X is literally anything the Woe encounter? I have no idea until he says so.

I've complained before about how the story's vaguely defined powers weigh it down, and this is another example of that. Procer and the Crusade have spent the entirety of Book 4--and arguably large parts of Books 2 and 3--being politically and militarily outmaneuvered. Procer also has a precog whispering into it's bosses ears with consistently great foresight. Since the war with Procer is in full swing, I need more explanation for how these points coexist than none at all.

Or, as I said before, the side with a person who can see the future on it isn't normally the one you'd expect to be constantly outwitted and taken by surprise.

Man, I love Cordelia and Klaus--Crowned and Warden are two of my favorite Extra Chapters and I consistently enjoy their POVs.

They've also been completely ineffectual throughout Book 4 thus far, with Klaus basically managing to do nothing to counter or even meaningfully effect any of the battles on the field and Cordelia's hold being shown as constantly slipping and weakening elsewhere, on top of the two of them being framed as stupid for underestimating Black's honestly dumb as hell plan. I'd be completely onboard with giving them credit for Procer's successes if the story allowed them to succeed at all, but it kind of hasn't recently. Which is part of the issue, really, because why the hell haven't they been succeeding recently with the tools they have?

(Also, keep in mind that the Augur predicted the assassination attempts well enough to know exactly when Klaus needed to be sleeping elsewhere.)

 

Neither the Yan Tei nor the League are Good polities. They're neutral - I can claim they're Evil via the same argument you're making to claim they're Good (i.e. they're composed of both parts). The Bard is a servant of stillness and the Intercessor for both Gods. The White Knight is indeed a massive zealot but if Cordelia cut a deal he probably wouldn't ever see Cat.

You make other points but I don't want to get into a wall of text battle so I'm going to stop now.

Anyway, it seems almost certain Malicia is indeed physically in Keter. Do you guys think Cat will succeed? Even if she does, I feel like she hasn't thought through the fallout. I get that she wants to limit the causalities caused by the Dead King but killing the current Dread Empress will likely lead to a civil war that'll kill thousands. Hell, it might even lead to an eighth goblin rebellion.

I know the inclination is to think "It's Praes, so fuck 'em" but most of the peasants and civilians are just normal people. A High Lord releases a demon in one of the Wasteland's cities and that's like half a million killed in an afternoon. Honestly, I can't see how it won't bite her in the ass and cause more trouble than it's worth.

 

Half agree here. I don't think there's been plenty of time to test the Augur's weaknesses, simply because she's yet to be in real opposition to Cat. She's been a looming obstacle but not a present or active one in the three books prior, and there really hasn't been room or purpose to explore the limits of future-telling then (Book 3 was stuffed enough as is). I'm guessing the Skein arc will serve this purpose.

That said, Errata still should've better established how Cordelia needs to play triage with the Augur. You can assume that it happens (though I know you don't give this story as much of a credit line as I do), but not illustrating it is a weakness. And more than that, Klaus and Black should've at least remarked on the Augur at some point during that battle. Klaus mentioning what advice he got or why he got none, and Black paying lip service to circumventing her. I figure Nekheb attacking the Proceran camp, the fire lake, and Black's decoy are all vulnerable to her to varying extents. Sure, I can think of some ways to explain it away, but not all of them are great and rely on more conjecture than they should. You don't have to spell everything out for the reader, but you can't neglect an element entirely either.

And she should definitely have a bead on where Black's aiming to attack now, but we'll see how it pans out.