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WitchHunt #5

Discussion in 'Little Italy' started by KaiDASH, Sep 19, 2015.

  1. Moridin

    Moridin Minister of Magic DLP Supporter

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    In a scum!Kalas world, well, aside from Atum (who I believe is scum independently) I would say Tempus Fugit is the most likely to be his teammate. As I've said before, his post on Tempus felt like he was trying hard to build something to accuse him of, and then it's followed by #641. Contextually, IIRC that post itself was brought on by Fonti townreading Tempus, so it feels like he's trying to get others to show why Tempus is town, as well as distancing the two of them. Tempus also scumreads Kalas on multiple occasions for flimsy reasons but doesn't push that at all.

    As for their fourth, hmmm...

    Menace was suspicious early on but outside of one spot where Atum townreads him is unconnected to the rest of the team. Looking over the votals, Menace put down a vote on Kalas but didn't do much to pressure him or the others in his scumlist, then jumped to Atum when he already had four votes. He was also the first to jump off it, but that's more reasonable.

    Cobalt is a potential. He doesn't have much interaction with the others on here either, aside from a few posts where Tempus mildly scumread him. Independently he does feel fairly scummy, though. The gravedigger claim could be legit, could be misdirect, either way it doesn't confirm his towniness, and he seems fairly indignant that it hasn't. Cobalt's first vote was RVS, then he voted me for what Menace later pointed out was a pretty strange reason (which, given how it had been missed until then, makes them likelier to be unaligned). He then jumped on the Atum wagon even later than Menace, with little reasoning given (not that there was much to choose from, admittedly).

    Luckylee's an obvious option, but not a particularly helpful one. Ditto Lungs.
     
  2. Aerylife

    Aerylife Not Equal

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    Lmfao. Oops.

    Probably should've come back before the day ended, but tbf I probably wouldn't of had any reaction that could've helped against the Atum claim. I'll be waiting for him to decide on lynch votes, and if you guys decide to lynch me instead I'd like to hear arguments/opinions on who you think I should take out with me.
     
  3. Moridin

    Moridin Minister of Magic DLP Supporter

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    Guys? Hello?
     
  4. Vaimes

    Vaimes Fifth Year

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    Good afternoon.

    Kalas, one of these days you'll roll town once more.
     
  5. Koalas

    Koalas First Year ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    In either situation? As in a one is town and the other scum situation? Cause Atum is essentially confirmed scum at this point and I've seen absolutely nothing to imply that scum!Atum = town!Cobalt.

    ---------- Post automerged at 02:49 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:49 PM ----------

    I rolled it this game Snow. I promise.

    ---------- Post automerged at 03:01 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:49 PM ----------

    That was a question Moridin.
     
  6. Moridin

    Moridin Minister of Magic DLP Supporter

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    Yeah, that's true, but consider it anyway. You can also throw in an analysis of a world with scum!Atum and scum!Cobalt if you like (or town!both for completeness sake).

    ---------- Post automerged at 11:33 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:32 PM ----------

    So yeah, in scum!Atum town!Cobalt and scum!Cobalt town!Atum worlds, was essentially what I asked.
     
  7. fontisian

    fontisian Slug Club Member

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    I don't think there's any need to consider town!Atum worlds. He's not even posting.
     
  8. Newcomb

    Newcomb Minister of Magic

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    I would like people who haven't posted today to post.

    I'm currently re-reading the thread at a pretty languid pace. Will probably drop some conclusions later toDay.

    I'll just say this: I'm not willing, at this time, to discount a Jan/Atum/Cobalt/[One of Menace/Kalas] team at this point. It's... less likely, I think, than other worlds? But it's not impossible.

    I feel like I'm just repeating myself at this point, but I don't want to just build worlds with the rock-solid foundation that Jan was 100% town and Cobalt's feeding us good information. I think he proooooobably was? But like. Why would you ask to be Judged as town? Is guaranteeing a clear Priest check really worth a mislynch? Asking as scum seems like it could be a gambit where you're gambling that a) the Judge is AFK in the last 20 minutes and you'll live and get towncleared for proposing such a -EV scum plan or b) the Judge will not take you up on it because volunteering to die is like something a scum would never do.

    I don't know how much that made sense. It was a clearer thought in my head.

    I mean... I'm fine building worlds off town!Jan. I just don't want to take it as gospel. The Judge could have gone elsewhere, and likely almost did.

    Other than that, we're killing Atum, etc. Hammer is literally "everyone except Atum" so probably not happening. Everyone post. Like, have Menace, Tempus, Lungs even posted anything today? Let's go.

    Vote: Atum

    ---------- Post automerged at 11:23 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:21 AM ----------

    Yeah I agree with that. Town!Atum would come out guns blazing today, I think? From town!Atum's PoV, Fluff is outed mafia who's trying to get him mislynched. I think he'd have something to say about that.
     
  9. Moridin

    Moridin Minister of Magic DLP Supporter

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    Eh, I'd like to see Kalas' take on it anyway, and I don't think it's helpful to tell Atum to discard the possibility that he's town, so /shrug
     
  10. Newcomb

    Newcomb Minister of Magic

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    Man, Kalas. I'm having the weirdest wishy-washy time reading you.

    It's like:

    You're not a townread. You're out of the circle. But I /really/ don't feel on a gut level that you're mafia. Remember in Narutomafia on D4 when you, as mafia were pushing Jan, and I kept being like, "no, I don't feel it. What's scum!Jan's plan even?" That's the same vibe. But that's also SUCH a shitty reason to townread someone. Blurgh.

    Kalas who is your team right now? Atum and who else? Do you think Jan was a hit or should Judge hang up his Judgin' spurs? What's your read, specifically, on Cobalt?

    like.

    Why do you think you read Citrus so bad, also? I'm not asking you to backtrack or anything, but knowing he's town now, why do you think you read him wrong?
     
  11. Moridin

    Moridin Minister of Magic DLP Supporter

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    The problem with getting others to post is the dead certainty that we're lynching Atum today. Which, yeah, but it's still a detriment to motivating people to post. One of us will be dead tomorrow (at least), so...

    There's reason enough for scum!Jan to pull the gambit he did even if he considered he would die, but it's likelier that Jan was town. Of course, Cobalt being right about his alignment (or his role) isn't a townfirm either way. I don't think anyone's going to ease up on Cobalt or trust the information he provides anytime soon, anyway.
     
  12. Koalas

    Koalas First Year ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Working on my team post, which answers most of that. As for Citrus.. I'm not sorry. I started out rough but everything I posted was valid, especially considering Citrus' end of day. You're 708 is the exact opposite of what you should be taking away from those events.
    fontisian Could I get that Tempus post? Ever?
     
  13. Newcomb

    Newcomb Minister of Magic

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    That's the thing though. As town you should be rearin' to go because even if we're 100% killing Atum (hint: we are), there's a chance you die in the night, because you're town. (I'm using the generic "you" here, mainly aimed at non-posters). Like, you'd want to leave a legacy in case you eat a lead-salad sandwich N2, right?
     
  14. Cobalt

    Cobalt Third Year

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    :/

    Lame.

    ---------- Post automerged at 03:01 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:00 PM ----------

    Kalas.

    Also, I think one out of my town reads might possibly be a witch, because they're likely spread out. Which means Von, Fonti, Citrus, Newcomb, Moridin. Though that's mainly me being paranoid as fuck after Newcomb last game, but I'm not willing to completely trust my own towncircle just because I think they're town.
     
  15. Newcomb

    Newcomb Minister of Magic

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    I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Citrus was town.

    Hmm maybe I should tone down the sodium chloride myself? ^_^

    Last night / this morning's idiocy on the main DLP forums must still be making me kinda sassy.

    Cobalt, man, I get that you're busy and shit, but it really really seems like you're kinda slipping and sliding around and not paying attention.
     
  16. Vaimes

    Vaimes Fifth Year

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    First off:

    i lol'd

    Newcomb: I've had similar paranoid thoughts about Jan volunteering to die as a Witch. He's been known to partake in self-shooting as scum, and he even talked about it a bit itt:

    He's referencing a game where fontisian was scum!Judge and killed Jan for the towncred.

    Ominous.

    I don't really want to speculate on this because I'd just feel really dumb later on for being so paranoid, but at the same time, the possibility is eating at me.

    muh bluh

    ---------- Post automerged at 15:31 ---------- Previous post was at 15:27 ----------

    Like on the one hand, volunteering looks super towny, and when the claimed Holy doesn't die, it looks good.

    But as scum, he'd be sacrificing a low-tier mafia role to mess with the Priest's check (I'd guess Cobalt). I think he'd only do that as scum if one (or even two) of his buddies were widely/safely townread.

    Things to think about later down the line, I guess.
     
  17. fontisian

    fontisian Slug Club Member

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    If Jan wanted to mess with the priest check and his partner was the gravedigger, he'd just have the gravedigger claim that the first person we lynched was a hit. So, Jan is only mafia if Cobalt is town, which isn't possible. Jan was town.
     
  18. Koalas

    Koalas First Year ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Alright. Citrus is Town in all possible worlds and Jan is town in 99.9% of worlds. In that .1% scum team would have to be Jan/Atum(fluffy?)/Cobalt with the fourth probably fonti. That's a tinfoil world in a tinfoil world though. Atum is most likely scum and I reviewed his posts with that in mind.

    In a scum!Atum and scum!Cobalt world:

    Half the team. Good job. Lee is a strong contender for the third spot based on casual mentions/content. As would Menace with his none mention by Atum and casual RvS vote by Cobalt. Newcomb should be looked at per the light scum read chain interactions with Tempus a possibility outside of that.

    In scum!Atum and town!Cobalt:

    Lee becomes much more likely, Newcomb read becomes less interesting but still a possibility. Tempus and Menace even out in the likelyhood scale. If that didn't end the game we'd want to take a look at Atum's town list, Moridin seeming most likely from those.

    In the very far out town!Atum scenarios, fluff has to be scum. I can't see him ever considering a town!play like this. In addition to fluff my gut says fonti in how the Atum case changed up her established zero info posts (admittedly she was pressured to do so). Lee still feels like a decent fit for this team. Scum Cobalt would make the fourth, town Cobalt.. I can't say. Maybe Tempus based on fonti not making that post before Day's end?

    ---------- Post automerged at 04:46 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:45 PM ----------

    Jan was Town but scum partner Cobalt would lie to protect an obvious check/NK.
     
  19. Cobalt

    Cobalt Third Year

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    omg, a damn mess. :rip:
    Newcomb: I had Citrus in my head from last Day but Waco is also in that towncircle. My bad.
     
  20. fontisian

    fontisian Slug Club Member

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    Oh, right, the Tempus thing. I have decided to not post a defense, as I'm a little more uncertain and I'm also relatively sure he'll be decent at defending himself. I'll just say that if Tempus was a witch, I doubt he would have approved of a shot on Citrus. I also doubt that he would have had much control over the shot.

    We're probably lynching Kalas toMorrow.
     
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