@Q - She has Cobalt as strongtown.

fontisian - Can you run me through why Fable & Blab are so low on your list? I'm very confident in those town reads being correct. I'm willing to concede I might be wrong on people like Miner etc but those two are town here. I'll talk with you about the rest of your reads when I finish mine.

 

Wait sorry lol. Forget that.

---------- Post automerged at 02:40 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:40 AM ----------

That was re fonti on Cobalt.

 

He's one of my higher townreads.

 

Not to put too fine a point on it: Regfan, why aren't you voting Zenzao?

 

Yes, Quiddity, I joined the wagon on you without a hard scumread. Given my distraction to this point of the game and your response before and after Waco's flip leading up to multiple other users chain-voting you, I'm going to wonder if they aren't onto something at that point. I thought about it more after you posed questions about the matter.

See above. I haven't been scumreading you because you haven't given off greatly scummy/3P behavior ala Narutomafia through the end of D1. You've been in my light town zone leading into toDay. I'm still in the middle of sorting out D1 to now and you're going there too when I have the time.

 

By the way, everyone should make sure they read this post.

I personally skipped it because I thought there would be literally just quotes in the spoiler.

---------- Post automerged at 02:58 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:52 AM ----------

Zenzao, you still haven't given an explanation for this line of reasoning

Do you stand by this reasoning?

If not, why do you still think I'm w/w?

Who, in the important post, were you shading by thread consensus rather than your own conclusions?

---------- Post automerged at 03:06 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:58 AM ----------

Zenzao, you're still missing the whole point of this. You think Jarizok is scum, you've done a ton of work on that, you reaffirm it twice in there.

And then, speculating as to my scumminess, you reason that I defended Waco in the hopes of getting Jarizok killed.

This makes literally no sense for you to think.


This

Doesn't fit with your play. You can't pass it off as blindly sheeping when you give the reasons for it in your vote

---------- Post automerged at 03:06 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:06 AM ----------

Also, what about my response after the flip made you think I was scum?

 

In a world where both you and Waco are scum(with Cobalt rather than Jarizok), and the choice is the DayVig aiming at Waco yet Waco is awol and the DayVig has not confirmed at exact shooting hour, wouldn't you then attempt to sway the DayVig onto a town!Jarizok and off of your partner in the firing line? That is where my thoughts on the matter were wondering after I voted you and you asked those questions.

In a tossup between you and Jarizok as scum right this moment, I would still choose Jarizok as scum over you, because I have read Jarizok, and I haven't read you deeply. In a tossup between Cobalt and Jarizok as scum, I would always choose Cobalt because Cobalt is so much worse than Jarizok in his interactions. Waco's flip disrupted my head in the moment, as I was expecting to just pick up with where I'd left off around post #200 and get back to it later.

I'm saying I joined the vote on your by the sudden influx of votes chiefly, and then from what I'd seen off and on toDay on my own. And before that I backed off of Fable via Acio, dC, and Regfan defending his posting style.

 

Waco chainsawed Cobalt against me in #233, but he didn't even have a town read on Cobalt at *any* point in the game. He even specifically says in that same post Cobalt is "pretty null" and then from there he doesn't mention Cobalt at all through the rest of the game.

Can people with town reads on Cobalt please comment on what I'm seeing here?

 

She said yes! My brothers over the moon.

@Q - I'm not voting until I've finished doing some reread analysis and even then I've not even read Zenzaos Cobalt way properly yet or anything that's transpired after that. I'll vote when I'm ready and comfortable.

@Pie - The huge disagreements I have with your Cobalt read is that I don't think Cobalt not elaborating hugely into his read on you is a concern at all, it's not the sort of player he is and he mostly focuses on his main suspects which you weren't at the time. Him agreeing with myself on You/Waco and then not saying anything about Waco again doesn't really phase me much, I hadn't gone massively into my Waco read at that point. Cobalt has had a strong town read on Q throughout the game, Wacos flip not changing that....feels normal for him? Like, you expect him to stop defending his strong town read there, why? I also find your "He's lined me up as a mslynch" thing really disengenious given his lynch preferences are Jarizok/Zenzao, not yourself. Like if I'm reading your case here, honestly I think it more looks like "Bring the guy that had half the thread scum reading him back into the fray as a mslynch chance" more than anything else? Your stance on Cobalt and how he's being treated in this game has been really fucking weird all game from you going scum were town reading him because he was going to be town read as town and therefore Miner/Waco/Q are mafia from it to "I don't think mafia defend a partner like that" to thinking Q is mafia, Wacos flipped mafia and bringing Cobalt up instantly? This does not seem natural from you, this does not make sense and this makes me think you're mafia.

fontisian - I can agree with your reasoning/read of Stanaris post-shot looking genuine, just not the strength of it; mind walking me through why you're reading it as such a strong town tell.

There's not really any Waco-Fontisian interaction at all but if I'm looking at her play here pre-shot and post-shot I'm not seeing her moving towards a scum win condition here? Her town reads throughout the game has largely been similar to mine, her scum read PoE pool hasn't been too disimilar too. Like if she's mafia here then she'd have to sneak a partner or two up in her town reads to attempt to win this game since lets be honest; she's not winning a F3 in an 18 player game.

Looking inside her reads in Post #1428 for that I could maybe see one or two of Q/Stanari/Miner in her top section being mafia but I don't really see Stanari/Fontisian being a thing with the way that Stanari awkwardly jumped onto Fontisian and think if Stanari was bussing with having Fontisian as her scum read throughout the game she'd not be constantly avoiding explaining it outside of herself. I don't really think Fontisian thinks sticking her neck out for Q is a winning move here and Fontisians turn around and re-turn around on Miner feels a little too weird to do about a partner. Given some of the larger qualms with her play this day phase has been her not having any real scum reads and that sort of her actions didn't feel natural her being in a QT with Vaimes and actually discussing those outside of the thread while making plays in them to get reads and evaulate there makes plenty of sense as town. I'd like to hear Vaimes talk a little about what's gone on there and his read on her but I think there's a decent chance she's just town here. I also think if she was inside a QT suggesting that Waco should be the shot as mafia she'd have also done it moreso in the thread too to get the town cred she'd need from the move. Think I've talked myself into her being town here.

 

Just addressed this.

And this.

Pre-flip:

Post-flip:

I'm not saying it's dried cement. I'm saying it was reasonable doubt in the moment.

 

I literally commented on exactly this in my Cobalt post stating it's a point in favour of Cobalt being town imo. This really looks like you scrambling to find someone mslynchable.

 

You really aren't addressing this. Giving a (to your mind) wild hypothetical as the motivation makes no sense.

Oh no you don't. You saw that influx of votes, and didn't vote. Then you go back and reread, or remember, my Waco interaction, and suddenly you're on the bandwagon, full speed ahead.

The "influx of votes" was manifestly not sufficient. In your post, the only evidence of intention before us, you don't talk about pushing me up, seeing reactions, etc. You specifically point to my post on Waco. And you do so, in the context of "why are we voting Q", as a correction. "Oh right, this is why we vote Q".


And to add: if you accept Zenzaos narrative, this goes against the rest of his play, and still looks kind of shit. Where before has Zenzao blindly sheeped - in the last 24hrs of the day mind you - another case?

 

........... I literally just saw "moving Cobalt back to lock-town" and zoned out and didn't read the rest of the post. I'm going to go die now.

As for the rest of the post, are you fucking kidding me? I thought previously we might have been in a situation where Cobalt was just town and scum were town reading him. Now that Waco actually flipped I went back to reread and saw all the stuff linking Waco/Cobalt together. I don't understand how this is hard to understand and frankly, I don't think you actually read my post correctly at all. You had a bunch of posts near D2 start and Cobalt didn't bother to comment on Waco then; he only brought Waco into it when you explicitly made your post linking me to Waco. If I'm just being incredibly dumb and missing something huge here correct me, but I reread it when I made the post and that's what happened.

At this point I'm in this weird emotional state where I simply just can't deal with this. You're wrong about me and you're demonstrating that you clearly don't understand my play at all and you're doing the same shit you did to me in FF and I know this is just going to be hell to deal with because no one in this game knows me. And I know that none of this will get through to you.

 

There's not really much between Waco-Kai, could argue that Kai pushing for Jarizok to be shot over Waco makes more sense as mafia thinking he could sneak Waco through another day phase and get another rolecop usage and sell it as being the 'right' play in that it provides information as the move. But eh, that's even a weak argument. Don't think the flip does anything with my Kai read.

 

You see that Waco chainsawed Cobalt, but think it's somehow a town tell for Cobalt instead of a scum tell because Waco explicitly said he was null.

Actually how is that supposed to work?

I'm not going to debate this with you, but. Ugh.

 

Yeah, this does ding Cobalt for me a bit. However, I'm usually really wary of this sort of "one-directional" read because we're ENTIRELY relying on known scum behaving how we think they do.

If, for example, Waco chainsawed a townie with unfavourable reads, it could have been to get credit when they get lynched later or to try and bring them down if Waco gets lynched first.

pie is probably town and probably shouldn't be lynched today. The same goes for Cobalt. I feel like either some of our big posters are scum or we're all getting into circular unproductive arguments, and in EITHER case what's happening isn't particularly useful.

 

Like none of what you're writing about me even makes any sense.

You know that I'm awful in blitz games, and push me over what I'm saying (a lot of which is intuitive) is changing because... ???

I'm "scrambling to keep Cobalt open as a mislynch opportunity" because... ???

 

That's fine, if you don't think you can get through to me focus on finding scum (And I don't think Cobalts your answer); my issue with your Cobalt read though is it's been Scum reading him -> Redacting the scum read due to people stating that your reasoning isn't accurate re; his meta -> Moving him into town without much reasoning attached really -> Stating that you think scum are town reading him for credit and because they know he's unlynchable -> Me pointing out that lots of town players have him as scum and that you not considering that your scum reads were just defending a partner was weird -> You continuing with your stance -> Waco flipping scum -> You pushing Cobalt based on reasoning I don't agree with at all. What do you expect me to make of that?

What I'm referring to (And I'm making this paragraph from your PoV ie. you being town) is that mafia notice your case on a town player, state a null read on them and push on you allowing potential for two town wagons to go through and giving themselves options re; to move. It makes much less sense him chainsaw-defending a partner in the first #200 posts of the game against a player that's new to the forum and likely to have less influence re; actually being able to push a lynch on Cobalt through.

 

Hey DC. Re it being a "one-directional" read, do you make anything of what I wrote about Cobalt's interactions to Waco in #1440?

---------- Post automerged at 01:41 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:38 AM ----------

I never moved him into town, I simply just dropped my scum read on him thanks to all the meta stuff. Moreover I already told you this but the thing about scum town reading Cobalt was more a general feeling I got than anything concrete I was basing reads around; it was simply something I was noting as how scum going with the flow of the game would act *if* we were in a world where Cobalt was town.

 

Where I'm sitting:

Reads:
Vaimes

Fonti

Acionyx
Cobalt
Fable
Stanari

Jarizok

-space-

Zenzao


I haven't included Regfan/pienyan/KaiDASH/dC/Adult because I'm looking at this as a bit of a reset, and nothing about them since the reread has pushed them substantially up or down. If I had to guess, Regfan goes up to town, dC goes up to lean town, Adult stays where he is, the others go down.

Vaimes is clear town.

Fonti is very close to that. I'm waiting on Vaimes to corroborate the QT stuff, but her play in general since then has strongly supported this anyway.

Acio is because of role interactions.

Jarizok goes up because of flip and because of the way Zenzao has approached him.

Stanari's reactions were sincere to the lynch, especially the flavor react.

Cobalt is a pure read throughout, especially the anger at the thread and then fonti.

Fable is interactions with Zenzao earlier, building off earlier impression.

Zenzao is obviously scum, kill the witch.