I have a ~1500 word case on my work computer I'll post. I've just walked down to McDs ffor lunch

 

Reg, here's my question to you.

You spent the entirety of d2 or d3 (can't really remember exactly) pushing pie. You two pretty much were at the point where you were both extremely angry and 100% convinced the other was mafia. Also, you guys apparently know each other well from off-site interaction and have talked extensively with each other about mafia. You've claimed that pie would never play like that as town.

But she's town.

So, why are you not scum?
Lynch: Regfan

P.S., fonti is probably the person who reads me best.

 

That, and the way you accepted Cobalt's townread on you and hard-townread him in turn just doesn't seem natural.

You didn't comment on any of the scummy things Cobalt was doing: hiding behind shitposting instead of scumhunting, being nervous about moving his vote, being overly and pointlessly aggressive towards Acio to match his townplay, not to mention his townread on you was too easy to have been real. "Reg is posting just like in WH8" was such BS and a lazy blanket read, I can't believe we didn't lynch Cobalt D1. I don't want to believe town!you could buy something like that as a legitimate thought Cobalt had.

 

Oh also, I'd like to point out how Reg 100% "bought" Cobalt's claim right up until the point where Vaimes was like "Yeah this is bullshit" and then after that he's like "You know, Vaimes, you're totally right. That really is bullshit!"

 

Can I run you over with that?

Asking for a friend <3.

 

Okay, but Reg has more posts, including narrowing downs suspects, which definitely should have already included a Miner vote.

---------- Post automerged at 22:33 ---------- Previous post was at 22:32 ----------

If pie and Reg are both town, I'm going to kick Reg's ass for derailing the game and almost making us lose again.

 

So, backup rolecop probably confirmed because I have no idea why they would shoot Kai otherwise (maybe PR read from his weird-ass doctor claim?). Whatever. Not really important at this point.

We have empirical evidence that Zen went down with SOME kind of plan in place to hand out towncred. To Cobalt, at a minimum. This makes me mildly leery of clearing Stanari based on interactions with Zen, because I kind of want to assume all those are staged given the Cobalt one was.

I should point out too that I don't think Reg is trying to slide me into his mislynch pool, because in that world why is he sliding Stanari back out of it? Scum!Reg has a much easier time of it if he just maintains the general skeeviness about Stanari everyone has been espousing for a while and then uses her as a final mislynch.

That said, I am pretty sure Stanari is town based on the conversation we had earlier and the OTHER arguments Reg is making. Which means we don't even need to hunt for scum in [Miner/Blab/me] because we an afford to lynch through the lot of them. To spell it out, from Reg's and most other people's perspectives we have the following living players:

Adult (Miner) (scuuuuuum)
blab (scum?
dichotomousCreator (town!)
Fable (town)
pienyan (town)
Regfan (town?)
Stanari (town?)
Vaimes (town)

If we get through Miner/blab and the game's not over then either Stanari or Reg are actually scum. In that world endgame is almost certainly me/Reg/Stanari/one virtual townfirm, so I'll reassess at that point unless we want to lynch me after Miner instead in which case hey! Not my problem any more.

Lynch: Miner choo choo no-one else has voted yet so I get to start it!

---------- Post automerged at 12:35 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:33 PM ----------

(EBWOP: Forgot to specify, but I'm pretty sure Reg is town too and the scum are just Miner/blab. Only reason he and Stanari get question marks is because Fable/pie/Vaimes have stupidly hard townreads while Reg/Stanari only have regular strength)

...actually, someone remind me of the reason Fable is town? I remember being VERY sure about this, but not why.

 

Fable has had verbal smackdowns with both Zenzao and Cobalt.

If they're distancing via AtE, then that's super annoying.

Vote Miner

Still trust Reg about 0%.

---------- Post automerged at 22:38 ---------- Previous post was at 22:37 ----------

I believe scum!Fable believes he can win without toeing the magic circle via angry outbursts at partners.

---------- Post automerged at 22:41 ---------- Previous post was at 22:38 ----------

I don't think pie rolls up on a new forum, busses two buddies D1 (Waco and Cobalt), and then freezes and only goes on and on about Reg for the rest of the game.

That's ??? how does she intend to win there. If she wanted to go with the "help I'm a lost little townie I don't know what to do" song and dance, she probably wouldn't have randomly started doing that on D2 after a mislynch.

Still can't believe Reg ever genuinely thought she was scum. Like, come on.

---------- Post automerged at 22:42 ---------- Previous post was at 22:41 ----------

Hm.

Does anyone think Cobalt was faking not knowing that Adult = Miner if they're scumbuddies?

Even if scum don't have Daychat, I think the mod would at least give them pregame chat.

 

Back at my desk.


Here's why Miners mafia;

1. His D1 Jarizok and Stanari reads are all over the place when you actually take a look at it with context in mind; his initial statement was a dislike of Jarizok not commiting to his Vaimes scum read in Post #303 -> in Post #364 he doesn't go any further into the read -> in Post #668 he's not talking to Jarizok in a manner which fits with having a scum read on him at all and then his response towards Jarizoks scum read on him in Post #740 is pretty over-defensive with the last line there feeling pretty awkward and the fact that he's calling it "Consolidation time" when attaching is vote towards Jarizok in Post #828 doesn't make his read there look genuine. His callout of Stanari there for "coasting" is similarly awkward given his only real commenting on Stanari beforehand was with a very early weak vote. None of this is someone looking for scum. His read and reasoning on Jarizok and Stanari inside Post #1146 continues to be paper-thin, there's no real depth to either read and it's just him pushing and scum reading the weaker players in the room.

2. His stances and reads on all three flipped scum during D2 and throughout the game have been incredibly scum motivated. If you take a look at his reads on Waco/Zenzao/Cobalt inside Post #1146 for instance the read on Zenzao and placement of him doesn't really make sense and is the perfect type of hedge read scum love to state on a partner, same goes for his Waco one. The read on Cobalt there doesn't have any progression behind it at all, outside of this post he just...doesn't talk about him again and given how Cobalt was a pretty dividing read inside the thread (Some people strongly town read him, some strongly scum read him) him not having a stance that came out of this from hereon out is a pretty large scum tell.

3. His stance on Waco / who should be shot during D2 and his comments inside Post #1214 and Post #1325 are huge scum tells (I really recommend at least opening those two links up), it's him trying not to disagree with the Waco scum read but direct the shot towards Jarizok instead which makes lots of sense as trying to save a scum rolecop from dying there and thinking Waco had a better chance of dodging death if we waited for him to come back, it continues in Post #1327 and his reaction towards the flip and how it impacted his reads in Post #1518 is pretty non-existent, there's no "Waco flipping scum has made me think X/Y/Z" at all just a "More sure on Jarizok now" and given Jarizoks flip this just screams scum. Similarly his treatment of the Zenzao v Jarizok situation is similarly just really obvious scum.

4. His stance on "Shouldn't have ended the day early", "Lets not end the day early" "Should have let Zenzao continue" "Lets not talk about the setup" in Post #1735 and the following interaction that I had with him that stemmed from this is just scum trying to take the "Reasonable poster" route giving him something to talk about and thinking he'd be town read based on it. There's no actual attempt at him trying to gamesolve from any of this nor is there an attempt at analysing what Zenzao's flip actually means; he states that he's spewing people clear without mentioning any names, it's him leaving options open, this is super typical of scum.

5. His stance on Pie v Myself D3 v D4 are things that do not match, as stated above he was trying to take the reasonable poster route D3 when he knew we were mslynching Jarizok but the second that finished he was very quick to state that the focus should be between us two on D4 thinking that he could potentially sneak two mslynches out of it hoping that it'd continue being a T v T fight. There's no actually attempt from him to analyse the reasoning both of us put forward for the other being mafia, there's no attempt at him rereading to see who's likely mafia via the flippeds interactions. It's just opportunistic scum seeing a chance to get a mslynch and jumping on it; he was spending the day phase attempting to cozy up to Pie and get me mslynched, when that happened he was hoping I'd leave behind a death wish on Pie.

6. His entrance and posting throughout the day yesterday when it was revealed that it was Cobalt v Pie had zero attempt to actually analyse the situation or attempt to work it out there at all; instead he was spending his time attempting to tie myself to Cobalt and prep a push on me for today pre-Cobalt flip using the reasoning that he town reads Pie as his reasoning behind his vote ignoring the fact that he'd never actually dropped his town read on Cobalt, it's the type of disconnect you don't see from town but do from scum that don't think about the progression that's required on reads. It's really noticeable if you look at his actual lack of care of about the lynch and day phase yesterday and his ignorance of the fact that I was voting Cobalt (As that ruins his narrative) to attempting to state "That makes me want to lynch you more" is just scum that's desperately scrambling to keep a mslynch plausible for themselves.

I can go into more links about how he's just obvious scum here but the above really should suffice. And I can't remember who was asking me last game "is that a case", no; this is a case. Can we kill the scumz now please?



Vote: Miner

 

Here's an early readslist from Cobalt. Known alignments added by me.

This looks bad for blab and Reg. I think he tried to spread his partners out evenly-ish, which looks better for Miner and dC.

 

Some fucking patience would have been nice, I'd told you I was out at lunch and wanted to post it when I got back. And "derailing the game", I literally put Pie to the fucking side so the game wouldn't get derailed and focused elsewhere. I spent most of yesterday solving between Kai/Miner.

 

Unvote

still going through Cobalt's posts

---------- Post automerged at 22:48 ---------- Previous post was at 22:48 ----------

How long does it take to vote for someone you're certain is mafia? Seven seconds max? The case isn't required.

---------- Post automerged at 22:49 ---------- Previous post was at 22:48 ----------

Like you had enough time to make six other posts, so.

 

Rolleseyes. I didn't just say this did I?

 

Yeah, I'll buy that. I don't see any real reason Fable would be scum anyway, I think he went after Waco as well. Honestly there's enough candidates in front of him that I'm willing to concede to scum!Fable world at this point.

Reg has felt consistently gamesolve-y to me so far, though...

...wait except he did that whole "Cobalt is town because SETUP BALANCE" thing and only dropped that one Cobalt was attracting too much heat.

...and in #2465 he cites Kai as a townread, which would look great if he was about to be proven right. (addendum: #2467 says "Cobalt is flailing to cover up a bad claim if mafia, but we need to kill pie right guys?")

Interesting side note: in #2487, 20 posts later with nothing of substance transpiring in the meantime, he's moved over to Cobalt. Like seriously, check those 20 posts and see if you can find a reason for him to move from "we're probably always lynching pie and she'll probably flip Mafia" to voting Cobalt. This reads like losing his nerve defending a buddy.

...aaaaaand scum knew Kai's role at the time, as evidenced by them killing Kai overnight. So hypothetical scum!Reg knew town had more power that Kai had chosen to conceal, and therefore that scum could claim it and argue setup. This in turn explains why Cobalt decided to go with a claim gambit (which he later regretted doing and implied he was new with, which kind of suggests it wasn't entirely his idea)

Taken together, I almost want to lynch Reg before blab :/

(was gonna unvote here but Vaimes beat me to it)

 

Because I'd already typed the vote up with the case and it was one piece?

 

That strikes me as not town.

In your shoes, if I were crowing about killing Miner yesterDay, I'd have snapvoted him within two or three posts max.

---------- Post automerged at 22:51 ---------- Previous post was at 22:51 ----------

It comes off as "trying to look good."

Another minus on my long list of issues with you.

---------- Post automerged at 22:53 ---------- Previous post was at 22:51 ----------

Still not really sure what the point of the roleblocker is, since shooting the Babysitter is so much more +ev for scum than blocking them.

---------- Post automerged at 22:54 ---------- Previous post was at 22:53 ----------

Hm.

Vote Regfan

 

Like to summarize:

In #2467 Reg is sure we're lynching pie and getting a mafia flip.

Next 20 posts are pie showing up and predictably going after Cobalt and Reg, and Fable showing up and saying things about Cobalt that Reg acknowledges already knowing.

In #2481 he's suddenly "undecided" despite posting in #2467, AND I QUOTE, "But you're right there's not a lot to discuss here until Pie arrives and with the day ending in ~15 hours we're probably always lynching Pie here and it's very probably going to result in her flipping mafia.". This is not the language of an undecided townie.

Then #2487 is a Cobalt vote.

The only real things that happened in there are:
- Pie showed up and acted town
- Fable staked out a position on pie's side

These aren't new evidence on who is scum, but they ARE evidence that pie might not be a slam dunk lynch. Which raises the question of why THAT makes Reg change his mind.

Plus there's still the whole "scum knew town had more power than was claimed because they knew Kai's role because otherwise why in the hell would they kill him, and oh look here's Reg arguing town is underpowered so Cobalt must be town" thing. Like, Reg is the only player to express interest in setup balance and scum demonstrably know more about town's power than town does and Reg makes an argument relating to town being less powerful than expected? HMMMMMM

(PREVIEW EDIT: Staying on Miner for -reasons- for now, not least of all being he's still scum :V)

 

Yeah, fuck this.

People clearly aren't even reading my posts.

 

Hey Vaimes

Answer me four questions, and if you're unsatisfied after that then I'll tie the noose around my own neck.

1) How many times have you incorrectly read me?

2) How many times has font correctly read me?

3) Do you really think Reg pushes pie the way that he does if he's town? Consider WH8.

4) Read my last post. Why would Reg, who is probably one of the most mechanics-heavy person in this game (when I say mechanics-heavy I mean like "speculates about mechanics all the time and generally has a pretty good grasp of what's balanced, what's not, and what's a likely and unlikely role in a closed setup), believe a Cobalt claim AND THEN A SHIFTCLAIM to Tracker, until you called him out on it? Would that ever happen with town!Reg?

---------- Post automerged at 10:58 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:57 PM ----------

I'm pretty sure Town!Reg would talk the town into the ground about his reads before he posts this.