British EU Referendum Thread

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Taure, Oct 13, 2015.

  1. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

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    It all depends on Brexit. No one wants to take responsibility for it, nor responsibility for scuppering it by unseating the government, so for as long as Brexit negotiation stretches out (through a transition period, or an agreed extension to negotiations), I think May will stay in power.
     
  2. blob

    blob Fourth Year

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    So there's finally some slow progress. ~£35-40bn divorce bill, no hard border @NI, citizens' rights between EU and UK will be protected if you moved before March 2019 (with a potential 2 year extension).

    Not sure what's the deal with Ireland<>NI<>UK to be honest.

    I'm also still uncertain as to what the UK actually gains from the entire debacle except less Eastern Europe immigrants (and how much of a win that is, I leave up to you). Could be that Brexit turns out to be a blessing in disguise if EU were to continue to integrate, although who knows what the future will bring.
    OTOH EU already has a replacement lined up - we just signed a decent trade agreement with Japan today, so we still have a quasi-xenophobic island buddy, but with waifus and tentacle porn.
     
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2017
  3. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    As far as I can see, May just bet the house on getting a deal. Because the "in absence of ..." means nothing else than that Britain will follow EU rules exactly if there is no deal, so some sort of weird, self-imposed quasi-EU-membership. If they honour this, hard Brexit just died in a corner. Even if May isn't saying that (yet).

    Says who? They'll be "free" to come into the country still, for example via the Irish border. You just can't square "get back control of our borders" and "no hard border", and so the former was nixed in favour of latter. It's the ultimate revenge of reality: If you promise contradicting things, one of them has to give. In what's surely the weirdest development of the year, May is now getting congratulations for surrendering, essentially -- but the fact that she had to was only because she struggled against it to begin with, and what keeps her in office is that no one is calling it that.

    I wonder what happens when, in the coming negotiations, the soft Brexit she just committed to without admitting it -- in fact, without even discussing it, the government literally don't know what they want -- becomes a de-facto reality. Her hardline-Brexiteers aren't going away just because now there's a deal.
     
  4. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Yes and no. The entire document is explicitly subject to a final deal being agreed. It's not itself an agreement. So something that is explicitly not an agreement outlining what happens if there's no agreement is somewhat pointless - it's similar to the fact that an "agreement to agree" is not enforceable.

    If no agreement is reached then May can completely renounce the current document, "exit bill" and all. Nothing is really agreed until everything is agreed.

    What's the point of this document, then? It allows those issues to be "put to rest" for the remaining negotiation period.