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The Trumperium 2: Caesar by the Pussy

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Jon, Jun 15, 2017.

  1. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    Has Trump finally gone through the long-anticipated Presidential Pivot ™©® ? Let us talk about this on Generic Political Talkshow ™©®, featuring Muh Both Sides, Respect The Man In The Office, Tan Suits, and Dijon Mustard. Featuring Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf Tucker Carlson, three members of the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board who also guest write on Breitbart, and A Random Female Journalist Who Happens To Be Hispanic.

    If you want to put Trump's policy-related actions on some kind of scale the height of Mt. Everest, then one side is probably trying to burrow into the ground. Sure, Korea might be a big topic, larger than most, but it is but one potential success in the face of a million and one examples of he and his critically injuring basically everything else.
     
  2. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    For those of you inclined to give Trump the benefit of the doubt or some praise at all for his conduct this week, please take a moment to ignore the media reporting and the talking heads, and just examine the results on their face.

    What happened?

    Pros for North Korea
    • Kim got legitimacy. He shook hands as an equal with the President of the United States.
    • President Trump unilaterally conceded to end joint maneuvers with South Korea...without informing the South Koreans...or his own military.
    Pros for the US
    • Kim agreed to pursue denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula and pursue an official end to the Korean War.
    But that's great, right? ...Let me put this in perspective for you.

    1985: North Korea signs Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
    1992: North Korea signs historic agreement to halt nuclear program!
    1994: North Korea signs historic agreement to halt nuclear program!
    1999: North Korea signs historic agreement to end missile tests!
    2000: North Korea signs historic agreement to reunify Korea! Nobel Peace Prize is awarded.
    2005: North Korea declares support for "denuclearization" of Korean peninsula!
    2005: North Korea signs historic agreement to halt nuclear program and "denuclearize"!
    2006: North Korea declares support for "denuclearization" of Korean peninsula!
    2006: North Korea again support for "denuclearization" of Korean peninsula!
    2007: North Korea signs historic agreement to halt nuclear program!
    2007: N & S Korea sign agreement on reunification!
    2010: North Korea commits to ending Korean War!
    2010: North Korea announces commitment to "denuclearize"!
    2010: North Korea again announces commitment to "denuclearize"!
    2011: North Korea announces plan to halt nuclear and missile tests!
    2012: North Korea announces halt to nuclear program!
    2015: North Korea offers to halt nuclear tests!
    2016: North Korea again announces support for "denuclearization"!


    ...So just let that sink in. And then tell me again how this was a good outcome.

    EDIT

    And to make it worse, North Korean State Media are reporting that Trump also agreed to lift sanctions and provide security guarantees.

    IF and I say IF that is true, Trump will have officially given away EVERYTHING for NOTHING.
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2018
  3. Erotic Adventures of S

    Erotic Adventures of S Denarii Host

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    The other way to read your post is that traditional diplomacy has failed for the last 60 years. You gave a beautiful timeline pointing that out.

    I think Trumps an idiot, I dont think at all that he is playing 3D chess. But I also don't give a fuck about the photo op everyone seems to be harping on about.

    Everything you say? I didn't know Anerica was withdrawing its bases from South Korea. I didn't know the sanctions have been removed.

    Trump gave away something he wanted to give away.

    What he got? We're yet to fully see. If it's just this likely to be ignored document, well at least this approach was tried. At least it maybe pushed off armed conflict for a few months. Maybe it makes Kim realise he wants to travel outside the hell scape he lives in and thus starts a very long road to joining the international community over his and Trumps love of Bigmacs.
     
  4. Chengar Qordath

    Chengar Qordath The Final Pony Prestige

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    I would take anything said by North Korean State Media with a grain of salt about the size of the moon.
     
  5. Solfege

    Solfege Auror DLP Supporter

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    So basically, and I'm just trying to get this straight, the alternative to "traditional diplomacy" is appeasement? Give them whatever they want and hope the fruits of democracy and liberalized economy will seduce them into peaceable agreement (while casting our regional chips on the table to the Chinese)?
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2018
  6. Arthellion

    Arthellion Death Eater

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    I mean, isn’t that what Obama did with the Iran deal?

    Edit: it’s negotiations. I think the bigger concern is what happens if NKorea reneges on denuclearization. It becomes personal for Trump and a slight on his personality. Past administrations would expect it and mostly let it slide.

    When Trump is insulted...he strikes back. :/
     
  7. Solfege

    Solfege Auror DLP Supporter

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    Well cast. After all, what's the worth of expert guarantees who're (obviously) compromised by political moral hazard? The people know best. /s

    Are you asking me to make a serious consideration or were you joking about the republican stance on the JCPOA?
     
  8. Arthellion

    Arthellion Death Eater

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    Mostly joking. But I guarantee you that will be the response from many on the right.

    To them, it’s further proof the media is in the pocket of the left. “They’ll sing Obama’s deal with Iran but only bring up negatives with Trump and North Korea.”
     
  9. Solfege

    Solfege Auror DLP Supporter

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    Is why I congratulated your casting.

    See, now my question is how you expect him to do that when he just gave away his leverage. Sanctions are implemented by the Chinese as they're NK's main trading partners. Already those sanctions are being loosened. From now on, the Chinese will go by the PR that benefits them to point out that NK is making good, on good faith, and American troops need to leave the peninsula as agreed. It's highly unlikely that Trump will be able to pressure the Chinese to do much of anything, and if he tries to apply a punitive military strike they will get involved.

    Especially now that we can't coordinate with the EU/rest of the world on punishing China in a trade war.
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2018
  10. Arthellion

    Arthellion Death Eater

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    That’s what worries me. Traditional methods of punishment are gone. And Trumps idiotic enough to use non traditional methods.
     
  11. Solfege

    Solfege Auror DLP Supporter

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    It's not so much the use of non-traditional methods. A trade war can be strategically applied if you measure out your long term interests versus your short term, and the room available to maneuver on each.

    It's that Trump's buffoonish enough to trip over his own application of those methods. The effective way to go about a trade war with China would've been not to drive your allies away from you, boxing your own maneuverability. The effective way to do a deal with NK would've been with rigorous and accountable checks, as if to repeat the JCPOA, with similarly experienced negotiators to develop a clean clear runway. Without, you know, just giving away all our leverage, to the Chinese if not the NK, in exchange for short-term PR.

    Sure, you can argue that Trump can claim a "take back" (are we in sixth grade?). But it's too late. Even momentarily releasing tensions, instead of keeping the whole thing under wraps until a viable implementation was in place, has loosened the atmosphere so as to give the Chinese a foothold for any alternative interpretation of events they want going forward.

    Trump's utter scalping of any process in the confidence that he'll (personally) come out on top of the chaos PR-positive was predictably bound to result in reckless collateral damage. We said as much back in '16.
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2018
  12. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    It's amazing how Trump has managed to make China the biggest winner of a US-NK summit. There'd be a joke in there somewhere except that got old a few sanctions ago.

    What does China hate:
    • Military excercises that were very much about China
    • Sanctions they didn't really want to impose
    • US troops in SK

    What did China get: The first -- check. The second -- check (only needs a little more pushing). The third -- future check (tomorrow is whatever, currently, Trump would like to pull out sooner rather than later).

    So as far as concrete results are concerned, this US-China summit was very successful, and Trump got China to remove trade barr-- er, wait. That was something else :s


    Edit: Also, Wisconsin special election D+18 from Trump in a local Senate race, and staying basically the same in a State Assembly district. I would love to know what the difference between those two is, and if knowing this would tell us something useful.
     
  13. Johnnyseattle

    Johnnyseattle Unspeakable DLP Supporter

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    I'm really wondering how far he'll get in his efforts to get the US military off the peninsula. They have much more of a role in the AOR than just being there as a deterrent to NK, and I doubt he has any idea why. If any general even remotely connected to his staff agrees with him that this would be a good thing, they should be forced out of service.
     
  14. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    The correct way to view it is that the Norks are dishonest and untrustworthy brokers.

    That isn't to say they might not miraculously turn over a new leaf -- it's a fundamental failure of analysis to assume that past events determine future actions -- but let's just say the track record indicates a high likelihood they'll renege or dissemble on ANY deal they make about ANYTHING.
    --- Post automerged ---
    This applies more to our exercises with Japan. But I take your point.
     
  15. Dark Belra

    Dark Belra Minister of Magic

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    I find it somewhat interesting that nobody seems to care what South Koreans think of all this seeing as they all seem to be very happy with the meeting. In my view, they are ultimately the only people that really matter in all this. Moon seems supportive of the entire thing and his party just won more seats in today's elections, winning 11 out of 12 assembly seats.

    If America loses out, I don't really care tbh, especially if it is for peace.
     
  16. Solfege

    Solfege Auror DLP Supporter

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    There are skeptics too. We shall see after the clarification:
    Of course the common South Korean people would be glad for a glimpse of relief past the spectre of imminent destruction. Were it we had more than wishful thinking, to carry us beyond the prospect of Kim taking us all for a ride.

    Naturally it matters not whether America loses out, the nobler goal of peace and lives will be preserved so long as America concedes influence whenever an opposing power threatens nuclear war. It is to be said with someone like Trump at the helm, American influence isn't worth much anyway, eh?
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2018 at 1:06 AM
  17. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Moon finds himself in an interesting position. He ran on the idea of rapprochement, but if you ask me, in his heart of hearts, he envisioned a long, drawn out process of burgeoning reconciliation that would burnish his own credentials but ultimately be so long that the result would be someone else's problem. He now finds himself in the position of quite literally having way more than he bargained for, and the cost could be his country's security.

    As such, he's publicly required to make nice noises, but the fact that he's immediately called a national security meeting is indicative of a much less favorable reaction.
     
  18. Aekiel

    Aekiel Angle of Mispeling Prestige DLP Supporter

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    That and not being an idiot means he is probably holding out hope for a peaceful resolution, but doesn't want to lose the support of the US in case things go wrong, as past experience says they will.
     
  19. ScottPress

    ScottPress The Horny Sovereign Prestige

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    In my view the Jedi are evil people across the world matter when a repressive regime wherein citizens are pretty much prisoners has nukes or anything close to nukes.

    I'm very skeptical that Kim actually cares about anything other than staying in power.
     
  20. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    Manafort has been detained to await trial.

     
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