Discussion in 'Politics' started by Troy, Apr 18, 2017.
Theresa May today called a snap General Election for June 8th.
Which is funny because I read your name as "Tory."
I don't see a world where this isn't a landslide for the Tories. Which I think is what Labour needs to force Corbyn out ASAP.
Trying to fight a leadership battle during an election campaign would be even more of a disaster than Corbyn leading them into the election will be.
Any predictions? I'm guessing Labour slip under 150. In Scotland i think things will stay pretty much the same. There's 7 seats where the margin was 10% or less, so there won't be massive shifts.
One of my colleagues is predicting a tory surge in Scotland...I think he's mad. Far too much hatred of them for that to happen.
I think Lib Dems will gain a few but not more than 2010.
Its a Tory world, we're just living in it.
The Lib Dems will ounce back with the pro EU voters and they make a good showing (around 30-40 seats), but other than that it will be a Tory landslide.
My local MP is not standing which means at this late stage the Labour leadership will stick us with a corbyn supporter, great.
Happy days, Happy days, Happy days are here
Outside of grab for more power why did your PM did this ? Is there any real reason for this elections ? Is there a small chance that ppl that want to stay in EU will vote against her?
What the fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck.
She wants to pick up more seats, and has been polling strongly, but more than that she wants a mandate to see brexit through to the end without questions of legitimacy being raised.
To me your PM is opening herself to possible of losing. Wining here gets her more power but at the same time everything she does wrong, small or big will be a huge story cuz of election. And you are starting your brexit negotiation now so there is a lot of small things that can blow up. Hell the election will have negative outcry cuz it adds more uncertain. I just don't get her, there is so much shit happening in UK and yet she wants to held election. I can image that this might push more of your banking sector away from London
Considering the competition she is faceing it is no way she can lose, it is now a question of how many seats she will win with and that will help decide how far the Torys will push things, right now she has a majority of 12 (i think) but with an election win she will have a powerful mandate and a good majority to push things though parliament without the treat of regular rebelions.
With Labour falling apart with now 2 MPs not wanting to stand May has no chance of losing she has timed this election right.
May holds all the cards. Labour is suicidical. Lib-Dems still are the raped, lying scum party and everyone can point to them regarding helping Cameron's rise and the beginning of this mess; yet, they're the ones in the best position to regain some seats, what with being the party of the 48%, but that depends on competency on their part, which while not Corbyn bad, isn't inspiring anyone soon.
UKIP has everything to be exterminated and their seats taken by the Tories, the country that actually did what they promised. SNP doesn't matter. Anyone that allied will with them are utterly doomed, and their seats aren't nearly enough to take control of anything.
May is betting on strengthening her position, decimating the opposition for the entire period of negotiations and immediate aftermath and distracting everyone while she make the first tests of the EU unity officially.
This is a good move. Everything is pointing to her to be the only one appearing to know what she's doing, while the opposition is in flames. People won't be mad at her for snap elections. This is exactly what the opposition has been bitching and her base just wants some kind of stability, which the election will promise to them.
The Tories are unable to take UKIP seats. Like, it is literally impossible for them to do so.
Any Tory inroads will be made in reducing UKIP votes, which may or may not work to reduce UKIP's share of the votes. Personally, I'd expect the Tories to lose a couple of the districts they took from the Lib Dems in 2015, but make far more inroads into currently Labour seats, helped by Corbyn's image and maybe some interference from traditional Labour voters switching to UKIP. (As a reminder, the so-called 'Labour heartland' also made up a large swathe of the 'Leave' camp. Then again, it's really only Labour they can take seats away from for various reasons.
Tories to go over 400, Labour to dip to ~150, easily. SNP with similar numbers to now, Lib Dems to 30-ish, and the small parties to basically remain as-is.
Not what I was saying. I mean that losing this election will be good for Labour if they're able to see it vindicate their criticisms of Corbyn and chuck him out, so they can begin to grow into a serious opposition again.
The very best thing Corbyn could do would be to resign on the spot. As he is unlikely to do that: What the others said.
As for May's calculations, it's a great chance to get more wiggle room. Look at it that way: With her now 15-ish (? or so) majority, she has to nod to basically everything some random backbencher, who hates the EU because it killed his puppy, says. With a hundred seats majority, she has more wiggle room for her Brexit. Whatever that is.
That is, of course, assuming the newly elected MPs aren't exactly the types she wanted to get rid off.
Or that Corbyn ... well, see above. A political poker game, as it were.
I really don't think this thread is complete without this picture...
Knew it was coming, know the outcome already. Landslide win for the Tories, with some Lib Dem seats regained (but not to the level they once had) and a huge downfall for Labour. If Corbyn pulls his head out of his arse for 10 minutes we may see Labour keep some of the areas contested with UKIP.
Otherwise I see it being a Tory win with Labour in second by a huge margin and Lib Dems/UKIP in joint third way at the bottom. There are just too many areas that habitually vote Labour for them to fall to that level.
With some luck we'll see Corbyn resign afterwards and maybe we'll see some actual competition in 2022.
So, will this be fought as a referendum on Tory rule, a referendum on PM May, a referendum on what Brexit might mean, or a referendum on what Brexit is meaning?
Or some combination thereof?
The British electorate is too far gone for this election to have any kind of good result. It doesn't matter that May is a fascist puritan when it comes to porn or internet privacy, they'll still give her something she can prop up as a mandate.
All of the above? May will win this with a landslide and use that to convince everyone that she has the consent to do whatever she wants.
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