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Voldemort's Coup d'etat

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Sesc, Aug 3, 2014.

  1. Donimo

    Donimo Auror

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    Absolutely. Harry the king maker.
     
  2. Erotic Adventures of S

    Erotic Adventures of S Denarii Host

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    I know its trite, but Mr Weasley does have a shot at it, his family was known to be on the front lines, one son was killed in the final battle and the other was instramental in Voldemorts down fall.

    He has worked in the ministry for twenty plus years, knows lots of peope and has run a department and commanded people unlike Kinglsey.

    He would have Harrys support and the support of most of the staff and order. He would have a good shot at being interum minister until shit could be sorted.
     
  3. Chengar Qordath

    Chengar Qordath The Final Pony ~ Prestige ~

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    Does occur that when it comes to the coup, Umbridge and those like her probably also played an important role. Ministry employees who weren't Death Eaters, but were willing to go along with the new regime.
     
  4. Skeletaure

    Skeletaure Magical Core Enthusiast ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    I wouldn't say he was a king maker exactly, because of his temperament. This is why I expressed his role as that of a veto - I expect he would kick off if a Death Eater or someone like Umbridge got the position, but I don't think he would play favourites between acceptable candidates. So long as the person who ends up in the role is adequate, I don't think he'd be willing to use his influence to remove them for someone he prefers.

    So Harry limits the range of possible candidates but he doesn't decide the Minister.
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2017
  5. arkkitehti

    arkkitehti High Inquisitor

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    Certainly there were a lot of willing and unwilling (imperio'd) people working in the Thicknesse ministry.

    The most important thing for any government is where do they derive their right to rule? Kings rule "By the will of God", while democracies rely on the will of the people. The Thicknesse government derived their right from the previous governments by claiming they were the next one's in line of succession after Scrimgeour "resigned". Or was there some kind of election to name Thicknesse as the next minister?

    For any third party to take over after the Battle they would have to claim that after Thicknesse they would be the next one's in line. Certainly I wouldn't think it unreasonable for Umbridge to put herself up as the next minister. In that kind of situation I'd say it's important for the "Resistance" to claim (and prove) that the Thicknesse administration didn't have the right to rule, as Scrimgeour was murdered and didn't resign, and as such no one can "inherit" that right from them.

    Malfoy ratting on his fellow Death Eaters (as per Pottermore) was likely a key component for Kingsley (or whoever Harry and the other key players wanted) to claim leadership by right of being the ones with the biggest sticks, until eventually some sort of general election would give them right derived from the will of the people.
     
  6. Skeletaure

    Skeletaure Magical Core Enthusiast ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    I think you're discounting possibilities without properly considering them.

    For a start, you're assuming that whoever follows Thicknesse has to claim right to rule on the same basis he did. I see no reason for this assumption at all, especially considering the massive political upheaval which Voldemort's fall represents.

    Secondly you're discounting the possibility that Thickeness ruled on the basis of emergency war powers following Scrimgeour's death rather than any formal succession. It's entirely possible that Thicknesse's government was still Scrimgeour's government in terms of mandate, just with a different person heading it up. This is the standard British mode of governance - see how Theresa May took over from David Cameron without another election. She was not his "successor" in any sense of there being some predetermined line of succession, she was just a different person heading up the same government.

    Thirdly you're underestimating the extent to which the people can just ignore the legally correct solution and just declare a leader they like. Ultimately the right to rule of any leader, regardless of government form, is the "rule of recognition" - where officials and other influential political actors recognise a rule as binding, it is. When they don't, it isn't.
     
  7. Ninclow

    Ninclow Fifth Year

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    For what it's worth, I just became convinced of your brilliance...
     
  8. Download

    Download Auror ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Who controls the Ministry after Voldemort's death is whoever has the biggest stick.
    In canon, it was the remains of the Order, Hogwarts and the DA, who appointed Shacklebolt.
     
  9. arkkitehti

    arkkitehti High Inquisitor

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    Of course there is a line of succession, even more so under "emergency war powers"; it might not be fixed and it might change when needed, but there still is one. May succeeded Cameron by right of being appointed by the Queen after she was elected as the new leader of the Conservative Party; in fact all British Governments since 1952 have been the one and the same, all appointed by Elizabeth II and all deriving their power from Royal Prerogative. In republics the governments are (normally) appointed by either the president (who has a predetermined line of succession), or the parliament.

    We don't know how ministers are appointed in HP or by whom, but clearly Thicknesse (and Scrimgeour before him) was similarly appointed as the new minister by some kind of predetermined, accepted procedure, that didn't require a general election.

    And I'm not saying that Thicknesse's government wasn't the "same" as Scrimgeours; actually I'm saying that it was, at least on paper. And that's exactly the what some third party might try, claiming that they are still the same government with the same claim, even if Thicknesse is gone. Harry and Kingsley can't claim that, as they are both "public enemies" according to the Thicknesse administration.

    That's why it's important for the Resistance to prove that Thicknesse's government wasn't legitimate; that's the only way they can have any claim to power. And it still leaves open the question of what exactly their claim is; basically it has to be "we have the biggest stick", but that never looks very good.

    Of course it's possible that enough people in the Thicknesse government were under imperius, and after the curses broke they were able to transfer their claim to power without a need for some kind of interim military dictatorship.

    Appearances are everything when you are overthrowing a government. It's not for nothing that dictatorships typically have the most mentions of "people" or "democracy" in their names...
     
  10. Sataniel

    Sataniel High Inquisitor

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    We know.

    Pottermore: Ministers for Magic
     
  11. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    This ends up being a somewhat paradoxical argument, though. They need to argue that Thicknesse was a legitimate Minister, but is no longer. That's tricky (well, unless you just blithely ignore the inconsistency). Thicknesse is only "gone" in the sense that he's caught up with a bunch of Death Eaters and will (rightly, as we know) use the Imperius defence.

    What the bottom line of this is is that they need to get a hold of Thicknesse -- if he's vanished somewhere, he's obviously unable to perform his duty and the path is clear.

    Simultaneously, the flip side of
    -- Harry and senior Order members holding the most convincing authority is the need to de-legitimise them (very hard) or marginalise them. If no one can hear them speaking out, they are irrelevant.

    So I would posit the following plan for a group wanting to install a minister of their choosing:


    • Time and timing is critical, so there needs to be an already existing plan and people in the relevant places (with a certain command structure) we mentioned. They can't do it on the fly.

    • The moment Voldemort is dead, they install the new Minister, and establish some sort of order at the Ministry.

    • Communication and travel is shut down, except for whatever they need (announce the new Minister, Aurors to control the curfew etc.).

    • Expand their influence outwards, get a hold of the Death Eaters and especially Thicknesse and try to lock up Harry and the Order at Hogwarts, or better yet, kill him and invent a "rogue Death Eater" or something.

    If I didn't miss anything, this is the best anyone could do. After that, it's hoping it'll have been enough.

    Harry and the order, in turn, need to prevent exactly that from happening. Assuming they can't see 1-3 coming, they need to keep a hold of Thicknesse (as that is a fairly decent argument against a new Minister) and prevent themselves from getting shut out of the process. Additionally, they need to do the same at Hogwarts -- organise a structure there, and then use that (and Hogsmeade?) as a their base.

    Harry in particular needs to be where a lot of people are, so Hogwarts or the village centre of Hogsmeade works. That's also his best bet for not getting assassinated.

    Thoughts?
     
  12. Andrela

    Andrela Plot Bunny DLP Supporter

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    It'd be interesting to see Thicknesse remain as Minister after Voldemort falls. After all, without the Imperius controlling him he's no longer a threat.
     
  13. Peter North

    Peter North Dark Lord

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    I realize that any wizard could fall victim to the imperious, but I would think the fact that a so called minister was successfully cursed would in fact make people loose confidence in them and therefore make people not want them in power.
     
  14. vlad

    vlad Banned ~ Prestige ~

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    It depends what this third party wants. Are they death eaters in all but name? Angry muggleborns? People who would be fine with Harry but want the trappings of power?

    That will determine not only how they would respond to the ministry (such as remains) or Harry, but also what sort of framework they could realistically already have in place.
     
  15. Arthellion

    Arthellion Lord of the Banned ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    vlad I want a fanfic following Prime Minister Slughorn.
     
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